The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Irezumi
3x $0.13
Light Box
1x $0.14
Motorized
1x $0.26
Slag
1x $0.29
Dezastre
2x $0.32
Red Tide
2x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
6.7% $6.78
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.44
Etch Lord
16.0% $1.64
Just Smile
16.0% $1.61
Hybrid
16.0% $1.53
Max Win
$15.50 (+406.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.00 (-1.9%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+121.1%
Cost
$3.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.06
Ask Price EV $3.00 (-1.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.83 (-7.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.06 (-1.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-7.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $15.50 (+406.5%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-66.5%)
Volatility +121.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$6.18
Avg Loss -$1.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-66.5%)
Std Dev $3.71
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 7h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 22S //TOTAL COST $3.06 //ASK PRICE EV $3.00 //BID PRICE EV $2.83 //ASK PROFIT $-0.06 (-1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-7.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +121.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$15.50
+$12.44
+406.5%
$14.49
+$11.43
+373.5%
$1.01
6.5%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$6.78
+$3.72
+121.7%
$6.18
+$3.12
+102.0%
$0.60
8.9%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$5.44
+$2.38
+77.8%
$5.20
+$2.14
+69.9%
$0.24
4.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.64
-$1.42
-46.5%
$1.54
-$1.52
-49.7%
$0.10
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.61
-$1.45
-47.4%
$1.58
-$1.48
-48.4%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.53
-$1.53
-50.0%
$1.52
-$1.54
-50.3%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.42
-$1.64
-53.7%
$1.30
-$1.76
-57.5%
$0.12
8.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.02
-$2.04
-66.5%
$0.98
-$2.08
-68.0%
$0.04
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:43:05.879891Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1007140625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.4175,
"optimistic_value": 1.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:35.991101Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:16.176743Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.61,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:29.166630Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.092767114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0245,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:51:09.126137Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.112425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.4975,
"optimistic_value": 15.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.10043300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.7844999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:38.749637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.08994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.442,
"optimistic_value": 5.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:34.717497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46ecd75e3e29aaf3c3e81319",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:01.920153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:49.619997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "503983642533631051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:09.765949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "529879340432926812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:06:27.655825Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "490472843633560503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:19.719112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "525375688036201111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:09.765949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "507361289453935777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:07.043434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "521998040962973094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:07.043434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598743581017674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:42.036045Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "505109437007054864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:42.036045Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.42 Analog Input 16.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +570.9% | $2.59 +12.3% | 20.0% | +161.7% | $2.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.41 Block-18 6.0% $1.43 Analog Input 6.0% $0.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.78 | $15.94 +212.0% | $6.85 +34.0% | 70.0% | +99.4% | $5.11 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.40 Block-18 8.0% $1.43 Analog Input 8.0% $0.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +245.2% | $5.91 +31.7% | 60.0% | +109.6% | $4.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.44 Block-18 4.0% $1.42 Analog Input 4.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +157.0% | $7.58 +25.7% | 53.3% | +79.9% | $6.03 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.44 Block-18 2.0% $1.42 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +118.3% | $8.41 +18.5% | 30.0% | +65.7% | $7.10 | — |