The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Dezastre
1x $0.34
Irezumi
1x $0.42
Light Box
2x $0.50
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Motorized
1x $1.05
Hideout
1x $1.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $32.23
Glitched Paint
6.7% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $15.33
Etch Lord
16.0% $10.49
Just Smile
16.0% $9.45
Hybrid
16.0% $8.10
Max Win
$32.23 (+174.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.92 (-15.5%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+61.3%
Cost
$11.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $11.74
Ask Price EV $9.92 (-15.5%)
Bid Price EV $9.77 (-16.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.82 (-15.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.97 (-16.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+1.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.82
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.97
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $32.23 (+174.5%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-74.5%)
Volatility +61.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$9.68
Avg Loss -$4.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-74.5%)
Std Dev $7.20
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.22 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom
—
Minimal Wear
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 21S //TOTAL COST $11.74 //ASK PRICE EV $9.92 //BID PRICE EV $9.77 //ASK PROFIT $-1.82 (-15.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.97 (-16.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $32.23 //VOLATILITY +61.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$32.23
+$20.49
+174.5%
$31.18
+$19.44
+165.6%
$1.05
3.3%
—
WIN
6.7%
$16.71
+$4.97
+42.3%
$16.69
+$4.95
+42.2%
$0.02
0.1%
—
WIN
6.7%
$15.33
+$3.59
+30.5%
$14.75
+$3.01
+25.6%
$0.58
3.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.49
-$1.25
-10.6%
$10.32
-$1.42
-12.1%
$0.17
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.45
-$2.29
-19.5%
$9.40
-$2.34
-19.9%
$0.05
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$8.10
-$3.64
-31.0%
$8.09
-$3.65
-31.1%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.18
-$7.56
-64.4%
$4.18
-$7.56
-64.4%
$0.00
0.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.99
-$8.75
-74.5%
$2.99
-$8.75
-74.5%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:11.766003Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04697078125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:16:17.496444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.493500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:25.889802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:14.160837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0432645026,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:14:11.617296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0524325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 32.231500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 31.92,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:29.613242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.046839700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.707,
"optimistic_value": 16.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:57.497190Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.041946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 15.326,
"optimistic_value": 15.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 14.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:33.702264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46ecd75e3e29aaf3c3e81319",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "521998040962973094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:07.043434Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990841908837987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:09.765949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:40.663648Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "494976224708092746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:40.663648Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:37.716092Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "508487242222507538",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:24.786500Z"
},
{
"price": 1.22,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "509613036859137603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:47.456629Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506234592363307536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:09:54.843685Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"listing_id": "633460107064317696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:45.086158Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "497228243054789885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:29.626049Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.42 Analog Input 16.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +570.9% | $2.59 +12.3% | 20.0% | +161.7% | $2.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.41 Block-18 6.0% $1.43 Analog Input 6.0% $0.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.78 | $15.94 +212.0% | $6.85 +34.0% | 70.0% | +99.4% | $5.11 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.40 Block-18 8.0% $1.43 Analog Input 8.0% $0.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +245.2% | $5.91 +31.7% | 60.0% | +109.6% | $4.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.44 Block-18 4.0% $1.42 Analog Input 4.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +157.0% | $7.58 +25.7% | 53.3% | +79.9% | $6.03 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.44 Block-18 2.0% $1.42 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.78 | $15.50 +118.3% | $8.41 +18.5% | 30.0% | +65.7% | $7.10 | — |