The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Irezumi
2x $0.12
Slag
1x $0.12
Motorized
2x $0.14
Light Box
2x $0.14
Hideout
1x $0.28
Blush Pour
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
6.7% $6.84
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.54
Block-18
16.0% $1.35
Analog Input
16.0% $1.02
Hybrid
16.0% $0.72
Max Win
$15.94 (+659.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.61 (+24.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+190.4%
Cost
$2.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.10
Ask Price EV $2.61 (+24.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.42 (+15.2%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+24.4%)
Bid Profit $0.32 (+15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+9.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+659.1%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-66.2%)
Volatility +190.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$7.34
Avg Loss -$1.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-66.2%)
Std Dev $4.00
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 151h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 12S //TOTAL COST $2.10 //ASK PRICE EV $2.61 //BID PRICE EV $2.42 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+24.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.32 (+15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +190.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$15.94
+$13.84
+659.1%
$14.54
+$12.44
+592.4%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$6.84
+$4.74
+225.7%
$6.18
+$4.08
+194.3%
$0.66
9.6%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$5.54
+$3.44
+163.8%
$5.20
+$3.10
+147.6%
$0.34
6.1%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.35
-$0.75
-35.8%
$1.30
-$0.80
-38.1%
$0.05
3.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.02
-$1.08
-51.2%
$0.98
-$1.12
-53.3%
$0.04
4.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.72
-$1.38
-65.7%
$0.66
-$1.44
-68.6%
$0.06
8.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.72
-$1.38
-65.8%
$0.69
-$1.41
-67.1%
$0.03
3.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.71
-$1.39
-66.2%
$0.69
-$1.41
-67.1%
$0.02
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.721,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:36.397251Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1338778125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.3475,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:58.688831Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:45.254218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.7175,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:41:42.959894Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.12331404359999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0245,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:54.790649Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.149445,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1335042,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.84,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:04.597255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.119556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.539,
"optimistic_value": 5.49,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:43.519076Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46ecd75e3e29aaf3c3e81319",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "506235442367696688",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.112947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506235442368057084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:54.878702Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.112947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "524249735518436271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:22.246067Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.543875Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.543875Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850543432401060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:44.475441Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "512990841908500487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:38.633352Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293735613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:32.769452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:11.941922Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Glitched Paint 6.7% $16.82 Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Block-18 16.0% $4.18 Analog Input 16.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 16.0% $1.73 | $16.98 +224.0% | $5.24 +0.0% | 20.0% | +102.3% | $5.24 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.56 Block-18 8.0% $1.40 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Just Smile 8.0% $0.75 | $15.94 +251.9% | $6.03 +33.2% | 60.0% | +112.0% | $4.53 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.46 Block-18 14.0% $1.41 Analog Input 14.0% $0.99 Just Smile 14.0% $0.75 | $15.94 +508.5% | $3.46 +32.1% | 30.0% | +168.9% | $2.62 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.56 Block-18 6.0% $1.40 Analog Input 6.0% $1.02 Hybrid 6.0% $0.72 | $15.94 +203.1% | $6.88 +30.8% | 70.0% | +96.4% | $5.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.46 Block-18 10.0% $1.41 Analog Input 10.0% $0.99 Just Smile 10.0% $0.75 | $15.94 +302.6% | $5.16 +30.4% | 50.0% | +126.1% | $3.96 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.54 Block-18 4.0% $1.35 Analog Input 4.0% $1.02 Hybrid 4.0% $0.72 | $15.94 +164.4% | $7.73 +28.2% | 53.3% | +82.7% | $6.03 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.46 Block-18 2.0% $1.41 Analog Input 2.0% $0.99 Just Smile 2.0% $0.75 | $15.94 +122.6% | $8.57 +19.6% | 30.0% | +67.7% | $7.16 | — |