The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gnarled
1x $0.28
Ol' Rusty
3x $0.30
Pipsqueak
3x $0.60
Teal Graf
2x $0.69
Metallic Squeezer
1x $1.03
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $10.72
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $10.46
Monster Melt
20.0% $8.69
Allure
8.0% $1.67
Monster Call
8.0% $1.59
Brother
8.0% $1.54
Max Win
$10.72 (+78.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.56 (+9.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+70.1%
Cost
$6.02
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.02
Ask Price EV $6.56 (+9.0%)
Bid Price EV $6.37 (+5.8%)
Ask Profit $0.54 (+9.0%)
Bid Profit $0.35 (+5.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+3.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.54
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $10.72 (+78.1%)
Worst Case $1.19 (-80.2%)
Volatility +70.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.94
Avg Loss -$4.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.19 (-80.2%)
Std Dev $4.22
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 16m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 25S //TOTAL COST $6.02 //ASK PRICE EV $6.56 //BID PRICE EV $6.37 //ASK PROFIT $0.54 (+9.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.35 (+5.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $10.72 //VOLATILITY +70.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$10.72
+$4.70
+78.1%
$10.49
+$4.47
+74.3%
$0.23
2.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.1229672
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
20.0%
$10.46
+$4.44
+73.8%
$10.35
+$4.33
+71.9%
$0.11
1.1%
—
WIN
20.0%
$8.69
+$2.67
+44.3%
$8.23
+$2.21
+36.7%
$0.46
5.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.67
-$4.35
-72.3%
$1.54
-$4.48
-74.4%
$0.13
7.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.59
-$4.43
-73.6%
$1.55
-$4.47
-74.3%
$0.04
2.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.54
-$4.48
-74.4%
$1.53
-$4.49
-74.6%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.33
-$4.69
-77.8%
$1.23
-$4.79
-79.6%
$0.10
7.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.19
-$4.83
-80.2%
$1.12
-$4.90
-81.4%
$0.07
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.127466,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.724499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 10.7,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.966722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.1229672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.463500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 10.46,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:42.642272Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.11247000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.687999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.52,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:15.741963Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.11996800000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.3335000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:12:55.065086Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.6675,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:05.395826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.5905,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:49.492885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.11996800000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.1909999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:26.711200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:11:04.050582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46d7b02e1b62c0cacea4714f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "515242588554922453",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:12.626704Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "502857637417909900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:55.124431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:55.124431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "661608215057506024",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:55.124431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:59:49.774039Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "498354089953419979",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:12.014311Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:12.014311Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "525374890942549699",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:59:49.774039Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "518619491421941344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:59:49.774039Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.068579Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Connexion 8.0% $1.33 Kitbash 8.0% $1.19 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +116.2% | $6.35 +28.1% | 60.0% | +78.0% | $4.96 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.30 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Connexion 6.0% $1.33 Kitbash 6.0% $1.18 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +92.7% | $7.23 +29.3% | 70.0% | +63.1% | $5.59 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.30 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 Kitbash 10.0% $1.18 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +155.2% | $5.43 +28.7% | 50.0% | +95.2% | $4.22 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.30 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Connexion 12.0% $1.33 Kitbash 12.0% $1.18 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +203.4% | $4.53 +27.7% | 40.0% | +113.5% | $3.55 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.30 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Connexion 14.0% $1.33 Kitbash 14.0% $1.18 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +255.4% | $3.64 +20.0% | 30.0% | +127.1% | $3.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.55 Tooth Fairy  23.3% $6.04 Vogue  23.3% $5.79 Entombed  23.3% $5.56 | $47.63 +222.7% | $16.24 +10.0% | 30.0% | +111.1% | $14.76 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  40.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  30.0% $128.37 Legion of Anubis  30.0% $92.49 | $1,312.69 +169.8% | $591.33 +21.5% | 40.0% | +121.1% | $486.59 | — |