The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
1x $0.15
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.28
Gnarled
1x $0.28
Pipsqueak
4x $0.42
Metallic Squeezer
1x $0.52
Teal Graf
1x $0.74
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $10.72
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $10.16
Monster Melt
20.0% $8.50
Connexion
8.0% $1.34
Kitbash
8.0% $1.19
Monster Call
8.0% $0.74
Max Win
$10.72 (+114.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.25 (+24.8%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+87.9%
Cost
$5.01
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.01
Ask Price EV $6.25 (+24.8%)
Bid Price EV $6.10 (+21.7%)
Ask Profit $1.24 (+24.8%)
Bid Profit $1.09 (+21.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+3.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.09
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $10.72 (+114.1%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-85.9%)
Volatility +87.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.79
Avg Loss -$4.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-85.9%)
Std Dev $4.40
Avg Norm Float 0.1764
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 18h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Field-Tested
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 03S //TOTAL COST $5.01 //ASK PRICE EV $6.25 //BID PRICE EV $6.10 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+24.8%) //BID PROFIT $1.09 (+21.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $10.72 //VOLATILITY +87.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$10.72
+$5.71
+114.1%
$10.49
+$5.48
+109.4%
$0.23
2.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Minimal Wear | ƒ 0.144648
The Overpass 2024 Collection
BIG WIN
20.0%
$10.16
+$5.15
+102.9%
$10.00
+$4.99
+99.6%
$0.16
1.6%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$8.50
+$3.49
+69.6%
$8.25
+$3.24
+64.7%
$0.25
2.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.34
-$3.67
-73.3%
$1.23
-$3.78
-75.4%
$0.11
8.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.19
-$3.82
-76.2%
$1.12
-$3.89
-77.6%
$0.07
6.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$4.27
-85.1%
$0.69
-$4.32
-86.2%
$0.05
7.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$4.27
-85.3%
$0.69
-$4.32
-86.2%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$4.30
-85.9%
$0.66
-$4.35
-86.8%
$0.05
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 10.724499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 10.7,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 10.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:11.503624Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.144648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 10.1645,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:09.037308Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.1323,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 8.497,
"optimistic_value": 8.28,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:32.374061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14112,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.337,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:12.615801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:06:18.050993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14112,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.1909999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:53.349929Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:37.594517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46d7b02e1b62c0cacea4714f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:06.672943Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "503983589619445987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:48.661740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "515242588554922453",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.299440Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:48.661740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "517494388633440706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "648097416147785180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:14.738805Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "509613089303435079",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "523123835627757262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:52.689426Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "525374890942549699",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "518619491421941344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:17.829941Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.16 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Allure 8.0% $1.71 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 | $10.72 +76.1% | $6.47 +6.2% | 60.0% | +58.9% | $6.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 20.0% $4.12 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $4.05 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 Kitbash 8.0% $0.69 Brother 8.0% $0.69 | $4.33 +61.7% | $2.77 +3.5% | 60.0% | +55.5% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 Kitbash 10.0% $1.19 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +153.5% | $5.42 +28.1% | 50.0% | +95.0% | $4.23 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.16 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.50 Connexion 12.0% $1.33 Kitbash 12.0% $1.19 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +202.1% | $4.48 +26.3% | 40.0% | +112.0% | $3.55 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.46 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.50 Connexion 6.0% $1.33 Kitbash 6.0% $1.19 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +87.5% | $7.21 +26.0% | 70.0% | +61.8% | $5.72 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.50 Connexion 14.0% $1.33 Kitbash 14.0% $1.19 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +253.9% | $3.63 +19.7% | 30.0% | +127.0% | $3.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  20.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  20.0% $33.43 Vogue  20.0% $5.79 Tooth Fairy  20.0% $5.75 Entombed  20.0% $5.68 | $47.63 +170.3% | $19.66 +11.6% | 40.0% | +100.0% | $17.62 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  40.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  30.0% $128.37 Legion of Anubis  30.0% $92.49 | $1,312.69 +169.8% | $591.33 +21.5% | 40.0% | +121.1% | $486.59 | — |