The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Runic
1x $1.62
Freight
2x $1.70
Wurst Hölle
3x $1.17
Teal Graf
2x $2.18
Metallic Squeezer
1x $2.68
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $25.66
Monster Melt
20.0% $20.12
Brother
8.0% $11.42
Allure
8.0% $8.88
Monster Call
8.0% $8.24
Max Win
$27.45 (+42.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.94 (-6.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+43.6%
Cost
$19.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.23
Ask Price EV $17.94 (-6.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.68 (-8.0%)
Ask Profit $-1.29 (-6.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.55 (-8.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+1.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+42.8%)
Worst Case $5.56 (-71.1%)
Volatility +43.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.18
Avg Loss -$11.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-71.1%)
Std Dev $8.38
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 69h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 20S //TOTAL COST $19.23 //ASK PRICE EV $17.94 //BID PRICE EV $17.68 //ASK PROFIT $-1.29 (-6.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.55 (-8.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +43.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$27.45
+$8.22
+42.8%
$26.69
+$7.46
+38.8%
$0.76
2.8%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.057277
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
20.0%
$25.66
+$6.43
+33.4%
$25.62
+$6.39
+33.2%
$0.04
0.2%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$20.12
+$0.89
+4.6%
$19.85
+$0.62
+3.2%
$0.27
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.42
-$7.81
-40.6%
$11.24
-$7.99
-41.5%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.88
-$10.35
-53.8%
$8.83
-$10.40
-54.1%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.24
-$10.99
-57.1%
$8.11
-$11.12
-57.8%
$0.13
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.01
-$12.22
-63.5%
$6.99
-$12.24
-63.7%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.56
-$13.67
-71.1%
$5.46
-$13.77
-71.6%
$0.10
1.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.059372499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:12.360058Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.057276999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0523875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:27.288574Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.05588,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:40.504243Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:04.912756Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:12:52.420518Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.05588,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.557,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:37.348938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:12.038384Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_46d7b02e1b62c0cacea4714f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:50.553780Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:06.207941Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "516368436282328550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:14.070987Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "510738989039482642",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:14.070987Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:06.832382Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:06.832382Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:40.728261Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "524249787960700827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:40.728261Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:06.832382Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:58:04.947857Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Connexion 8.0% $1.33 Kitbash 8.0% $1.19 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 | $10.72 +116.2% | $6.35 +28.1% | 60.0% | +78.0% | $4.96 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.46 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Allure 8.0% $1.67 Monster Call 8.0% $1.59 Brother 8.0% $1.54 | $10.72 +78.1% | $6.56 +9.0% | 60.0% | +60.6% | $6.02 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.30 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Connexion 6.0% $1.33 Kitbash 6.0% $1.18 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +92.7% | $7.23 +29.3% | 70.0% | +63.1% | $5.59 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.30 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 Kitbash 10.0% $1.18 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +155.2% | $5.43 +28.7% | 50.0% | +95.2% | $4.22 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.30 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Connexion 12.0% $1.33 Kitbash 12.0% $1.18 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +203.4% | $4.53 +27.7% | 40.0% | +113.5% | $3.55 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.30 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Connexion 14.0% $1.33 Kitbash 14.0% $1.18 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 | $10.77 +255.4% | $3.64 +20.0% | 30.0% | +127.1% | $3.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.55 Tooth Fairy  23.3% $6.04 Vogue  23.3% $5.79 Entombed  23.3% $5.56 | $47.63 +222.7% | $16.24 +10.0% | 30.0% | +111.1% | $14.76 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  40.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  30.0% $128.37 Legion of Anubis  30.0% $92.49 | $1,312.69 +169.8% | $591.33 +21.5% | 40.0% | +121.1% | $486.59 | — |