The Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $2.96
Banana Leaf
2x $0.17
Picnic
3x $0.18
Coral Paisley
1x $0.26
XoooM
2x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $40.55
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Fraise Crane
20.0% $2.60
Sky Mandala
20.0% $1.81
Earth Mandala
20.0% $1.11
Warm Blooded
20.0% $1.07
Max Win
$40.55 (+350.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.91 (-1.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+161.9%
Cost
$9.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.00
Ask Price EV $8.91 (-1.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.40 (-17.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.09 (-1.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.60 (-17.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.50 (+16.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.09
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $40.55 (+350.6%)
Worst Case $1.07 (-88.1%)
Volatility +161.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$28.93
Avg Loss -$7.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.07 (-88.1%)
Std Dev $14.57
Avg Norm Float 0.1494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Well-Worn
$2.96 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.49 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 25S //TOTAL COST $9.00 //ASK PRICE EV $8.91 //BID PRICE EV $7.40 //ASK PROFIT $-0.09 (-1.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.60 (-17.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $40.55 //VOLATILITY +161.9% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$40.55
+$31.55
+350.6%
$28.61
+$19.61
+217.9%
$11.94
29.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$26.31
+292.4%
$33.55
+$24.55
+272.8%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.60
-$6.40
-71.1%
$2.37
-$6.63
-73.7%
$0.23
9.0%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.81
-$7.19
-79.8%
$1.55
-$7.45
-82.8%
$0.26
14.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.11
-$7.89
-87.6%
$1.01
-$7.99
-88.8%
$0.10
9.2%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.07
-$7.93
-88.1%
$1.01
-$7.99
-88.8%
$0.06
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.09711,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:25.041413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.10457999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.814,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:24:54.225935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.10457999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.07,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:57.378658Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.09860400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.112,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:50.353846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.011952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1494,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 40.553,
"optimistic_value": 38.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 28.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:52.450752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_45431b2e4f4eda46e13e70a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.96,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "523123835627218738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:00.577249Z"
},
{
"price": 3.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "517494222854307622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:50.967725Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:27.830621Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:20.025338Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:51.967281Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "523123888072201834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:53.582464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746188257913796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:42.594924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "529879235107884672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:42.594924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "529879287551165328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.382343Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 10.0% $35.31 Fraise Crane 20.0% $6.21 Sky Mandala 20.0% $3.50 Warm Blooded 20.0% $2.27 Earth Mandala 20.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +898.6% | $24.55 +34.9% | 20.0% | +292.7% | $18.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 15.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 15.0% $35.31 Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.21 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.50 Warm Blooded 17.5% $2.27 Earth Mandala 17.5% $2.24 | $181.74 +577.4% | $35.05 +30.6% | 30.0% | +233.5% | $26.83 | — |