The Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $4.60
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
XoooM
2x $0.36
Picnic
4x $0.40
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $181.74
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.21
Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.50
Earth Mandala
20.0% $2.33
Warm Blooded
20.0% $2.27
Max Win
$181.74 (+882.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.57 (+32.9%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+288.0%
Cost
$18.49
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $18.49
Ask Price EV $24.57 (+32.9%)
Bid Price EV $18.18 (-1.7%)
Ask Profit $6.08 (+32.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.31 (-1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.39 (+34.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $181.74 (+882.9%)
Worst Case $2.27 (-87.7%)
Volatility +288.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$90.04
Avg Loss -$14.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.27 (-87.7%)
Std Dev $53.26
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 139h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$7.37 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 20S //TOTAL COST $18.49 //ASK PRICE EV $24.57 //BID PRICE EV $18.18 //ASK PROFIT $6.08 (+32.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.31 (-1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $181.74 //VOLATILITY +288.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$181.74
+$163.25
+882.9%
$120.00
+$101.51
+549.0%
$61.74
34.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$16.82
+91.0%
$33.55
+$15.06
+81.4%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$6.21
-$12.28
-66.4%
$6.18
-$12.31
-66.6%
$0.03
0.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$3.50
-$14.99
-81.1%
$3.45
-$15.04
-81.3%
$0.05
1.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.33
-$16.16
-87.4%
$2.23
-$16.26
-87.9%
$0.10
4.2%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.27
-$16.22
-87.7%
$2.25
-$16.24
-87.8%
$0.02
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.045201000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5035,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.045896400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3275,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.005563200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 181.7415,
"optimistic_value": 150.91,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 120,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:58.072873Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_45431b2e4f4eda46e13e70a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524249529996069051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.909713Z"
},
{
"price": 7.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524248990847644659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:03.101437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "514116688949652090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:39:17.962115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "516368488725215330",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:42.999968Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "505109489448518132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:46.829137Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:42.999968Z"
},
{
"price": 1.64,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884282263",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 15.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 15.0% $35.31 Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.21 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.50 Earth Mandala 17.5% $2.33 Warm Blooded 17.5% $2.27 | $181.74 +571.1% | $35.06 +29.5% | 30.0% | +231.3% | $27.08 | — |