The Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $2.37
Coral Paisley
2x $0.05
Picnic
2x $0.06
XoooM
1x $0.08
Calligrafaux
3x $0.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Brass
10.0% $9.61
Sky Mandala
20.0% $0.59
Fraise Crane
20.0% $0.52
Warm Blooded
20.0% $0.49
Earth Mandala
20.0% $0.47
Max Win
$35.31 (+550.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.91 (-9.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+193.2%
Cost
$5.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.43
Ask Price EV $4.91 (-9.6%)
Bid Price EV $4.60 (-15.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.52 (-9.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.83 (-15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.30 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.52
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.83
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $35.31 (+550.3%)
Worst Case $0.47 (-91.3%)
Volatility +193.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$17.03
Avg Loss -$4.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.47 (-91.3%)
Std Dev $10.49
Avg Norm Float 0.3678
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 40h 11m
Oldest Output Price 140h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 09S //TOTAL COST $5.43 //ASK PRICE EV $4.91 //BID PRICE EV $4.60 //ASK PROFIT $-0.52 (-9.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.83 (-15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $35.31 //VOLATILITY +193.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$29.88
+550.3%
$33.55
+$28.12
+517.9%
$1.76
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$9.61
+$4.18
+76.9%
$9.09
+$3.66
+67.4%
$0.52
5.4%
—
NUKE THIN BID
20.0%
$0.59
-$4.84
-89.1%
$0.43
-$5.00
-92.1%
$0.16
27.1%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.52
-$4.91
-90.5%
$0.42
-$5.01
-92.3%
$0.10
18.8%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.49
-$4.94
-91.0%
$0.42
-$5.01
-92.3%
$0.07
14.4%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.47
-$4.96
-91.3%
$0.42
-$5.01
-92.3%
$0.05
11.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.23907,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 0.517,
"optimistic_value": 0.51,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:46.183996Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.25746,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 0.59,
"optimistic_value": 0.59,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:07.973449Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.25746,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 0.4905,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.24274800000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 0.47400000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.029424000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.3678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 9.607000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 9.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:00.426921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_45431b2e4f4eda46e13e70a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "508487023588358342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "503983423967333359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "502857689862346912",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:19.625358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789730146309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:28.867059Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "507361237008603373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:33:51.849285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613089304167139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:19.625358Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "498354089951902687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:28.867059Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "503983589618453971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:41.778266Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "501731789729198609",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:41.778266Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "622201718380728336",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:41.778266Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 10.0% $35.31 Fraise Crane 20.0% $6.21 Sky Mandala 20.0% $3.50 Warm Blooded 20.0% $2.27 Earth Mandala 20.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +898.6% | $24.55 +34.9% | 20.0% | +292.7% | $18.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 15.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 15.0% $35.31 Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.21 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.50 Warm Blooded 17.5% $2.27 Earth Mandala 17.5% $2.24 | $181.74 +577.4% | $35.05 +30.6% | 30.0% | +233.5% | $26.83 | — |