The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Tom Cat
4x $0.34
Distressed
1x $0.36
Prototype
1x $0.41
Rose Hex
2x $0.40
Blush Pour
2x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
13.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
13.3% $6.84
Bleeding Edge
13.3% $5.54
Fever Dream
12.0% $3.00
Acid Etched
12.0% $2.34
Darkwing
12.0% $2.29
Max Win
$15.94 (+210.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.15 (+0.2%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+89.0%
Cost
$5.14
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.14
Ask Price EV $5.15 (+0.2%)
Bid Price EV $4.74 (-7.9%)
Ask Profit $0.01 (+0.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.40 (-7.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+8.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.40
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+210.1%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-63.1%)
Volatility +89.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$4.30
Avg Loss -$2.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-63.1%)
Std Dev $4.57
Avg Norm Float 0.1498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 151h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 07S //TOTAL COST $5.14 //ASK PRICE EV $5.15 //BID PRICE EV $4.74 //ASK PROFIT $0.01 (+0.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.40 (-7.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +89.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$15.94
+$10.80
+210.1%
$14.54
+$9.40
+182.9%
$1.40
8.8%
—
WIN
13.3%
$6.84
+$1.70
+33.1%
$6.18
+$1.04
+20.2%
$0.66
9.6%
—
SMALL WIN
13.3%
$5.54
+$0.40
+7.8%
$5.20
+$0.06
+1.2%
$0.34
6.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.00
-$2.15
-41.7%
$2.80
-$2.34
-45.5%
$0.20
6.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$2.34
-$2.80
-54.5%
$2.25
-$2.89
-56.2%
$0.09
3.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$2.29
-$2.85
-55.4%
$2.02
-$3.12
-60.7%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.94
-$3.20
-62.2%
$1.88
-$3.26
-63.4%
$0.06
3.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.90
-$3.24
-63.1%
$1.72
-$3.42
-66.5%
$0.18
9.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11233499999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1003526,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.84,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:04.597255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.08986799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.539,
"optimistic_value": 5.49,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:43.519076Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.3405,
"optimistic_value": 2.33,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.692849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.8969999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:21:57.429387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1078416,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 2.995,
"optimistic_value": 2.96,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:52:57.348197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.944,
"optimistic_value": 1.93,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:34.803880Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_44d5acd673a37b0237a0cf98",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "499480042828020313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.734893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "503983537176128143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.734893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "526501587738372281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.734893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:05.950018Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491598690698515994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.734893Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:45.434620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:11.941922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:32.769452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633767838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:12.268433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.96,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "490472843633020035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:15.560807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.54 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +344.1% | $4.60 +28.2% | 40.0% | +128.7% | $3.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.56 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.41 +28.4% | 50.0% | +114.6% | $4.21 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.54 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +155.5% | $7.83 +25.4% | 53.3% | +78.3% | $6.24 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +128.7% | $8.63 +23.9% | 30.0% | +68.5% | $6.97 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.46 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.10 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +208.9% | $6.21 +20.3% | 60.0% | +95.4% | $5.16 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.46 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.10 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +159.6% | $7.01 +14.2% | 46.7% | +80.5% | $6.14 | — |