The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
3x $0.41
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
2x $1.00
Rose Hex
2x $1.84
Blush Pour
2x $2.91
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
12.0% $34.68
Mulberry
13.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
13.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
13.3% $16.82
Enforcer
12.0% $9.50
Darkwing
12.0% $9.44
Max Win
$34.68 (+89.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.54 (-4.0%)
Win %
25.3%
Volatility
+55.4%
Cost
$18.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.26
Ask Price EV $17.54 (-4.0%)
Bid Price EV $16.66 (-8.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.72 (-4.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.60 (-8.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.88 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 25.3%
Loss Probability 74.7%
Best Case $34.68 (+89.9%)
Worst Case $8.50 (-53.4%)
Volatility +55.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$15.75
Avg Loss -$6.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.50 (-53.4%)
Std Dev $10.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 152h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.89 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 54S //TOTAL COST $18.26 //ASK PRICE EV $17.54 //BID PRICE EV $16.66 //ASK PROFIT $-0.72 (-4.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.60 (-8.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.3% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +55.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$34.68
+$16.41
+89.9%
$32.11
+$13.85
+75.8%
$2.56
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$33.42
+$15.16
+83.0%
$31.48
+$13.22
+72.4%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$16.98
-$1.28
-7.0%
$16.48
-$1.78
-9.7%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$16.82
-$1.44
-7.9%
$16.69
-$1.57
-8.6%
$0.13
0.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.50
-$8.76
-48.0%
$8.94
-$9.32
-51.0%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.44
-$8.83
-48.3%
$9.24
-$9.02
-49.4%
$0.20
2.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.34
-$8.92
-48.9%
$8.74
-$9.52
-52.1%
$0.60
6.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$8.50
-$9.76
-53.4%
$7.96
-$10.30
-56.4%
$0.54
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.816000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 16.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:38.932971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:49:58.178435Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.435,
"optimistic_value": 9.4,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:03.427720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.050392799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.5025,
"optimistic_value": 8.45,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:25.564195Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.3375,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:25.932090Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_44d5acd673a37b0237a0cf98",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:45.434620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:53.734893Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "518620122759971524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:56.568145Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "505109489447933888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:56.568145Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:49.198392Z"
},
{
"price": 1.89,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490471993865742543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:49.198392Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:42.949544Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:42.949544Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "497228243054789885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:35.594753Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:35.594753Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.54 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +344.1% | $4.60 +28.2% | 40.0% | +128.7% | $3.59 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.54 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 12.0% $2.34 Darkwing 12.0% $2.29 | $15.94 +210.1% | $5.15 +0.2% | 40.0% | +83.5% | $5.14 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.56 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +278.7% | $5.41 +28.4% | 50.0% | +114.6% | $4.21 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.54 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 4.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +155.5% | $7.83 +25.4% | 53.3% | +78.3% | $6.24 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.82 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.56 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.00 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +128.7% | $8.63 +23.9% | 30.0% | +68.5% | $6.97 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.46 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.10 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +208.9% | $6.21 +20.3% | 60.0% | +95.4% | $5.16 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.85 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.46 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.10 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +159.6% | $7.01 +14.2% | 46.7% | +80.5% | $6.14 | — |