The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Aeolian Light
2x $0.26
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.34
Grip Tape
2x $0.35
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
1x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
10.0% $7.13
Breakthrough
35.0% $5.85
Charged Up
10.0% $5.48
Whiteout
10.0% $4.14
Trace Lock
35.0% $2.19
Max Win
$7.13 (+79.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.49 (+13.1%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+45.8%
Cost
$3.97
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.97
Ask Price EV $4.49 (+13.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.00 (+0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.52 (+13.1%)
Bid Profit $0.03 (+0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+79.6%)
Worst Case $2.19 (-44.9%)
Volatility +45.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$1.76
Avg Loss -$1.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.19 (-44.9%)
Std Dev $1.82
Avg Norm Float 0.4411
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 25S //TOTAL COST $3.97 //ASK PRICE EV $4.49 //BID PRICE EV $4.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.52 (+13.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.03 (+0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +45.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$7.13
+$3.16
+79.6%
$6.40
+$2.43
+61.2%
$0.73
10.2%
—
WIN
35.0%
$5.85
+$1.88
+47.4%
$4.91
+$0.94
+23.7%
$0.94
16.1%
—
WIN
10.0%
$5.48
+$1.51
+38.1%
$4.88
+$0.91
+22.9%
$0.60
11.0%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$4.14
+$0.17
+4.3%
$4.11
+$0.14
+3.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$2.19
-$1.78
-44.9%
$2.13
-$1.84
-46.3%
$0.06
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.330825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.30877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:09.455078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.30877,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.47463399999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 4.14,
"optimistic_value": 4.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 4.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:29.574833Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.4411,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 5.481,
"optimistic_value": 5.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 4.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_44b46fd4a958aa8511e1af5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "511864941881349645",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:08.105730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "499480042827724717",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:54.063861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "505109542379650448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:54.063861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "508487242221826598",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:33.099832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "520872141037641288",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:54.063861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "491598743580262862",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:05.592451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "493850543431854508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:33.099832Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.14 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +66.2% | $4.75 +29.1% | 65.0% | +35.0% | $3.68 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $43.71 Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Charged Up 10.0% $22.86 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.65 | $64.86 +183.5% | $27.69 +21.0% | 55.0% | +65.7% | $22.88 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Charged Up 10.0% $7.55 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Whiteout 10.0% $5.23 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.19 | $7.55 +74.7% | $4.80 +11.2% | 65.0% | +46.8% | $4.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.14 Trace Lock 40.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +72.3% | $4.72 +33.0% | 60.0% | +38.0% | $3.55 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Derailment 3.3% $7.13 Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Charged Up 3.3% $4.93 Whiteout 3.3% $4.14 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.19 | $7.13 +100.3% | $4.28 +20.1% | 55.0% | +54.6% | $3.56 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.39 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +157.8% | $30.09 +19.6% | 56.7% | +65.3% | $25.16 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +138.7% | $32.41 +19.3% | 33.3% | +63.9% | $27.17 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +113.8% | $34.73 +14.5% | 40.0% | +59.1% | $30.34 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 The End  30.0% $159.10 | $597.10 +89.8% | $359.77 +14.4% | 35.0% | +58.0% | $314.55 | — |