The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +10.4%Factory New +1.3%Field-Tested +11.7%Minimal Wear +22.4%Well-Worn -2.4%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Aeolian Light

3x $0.26

Creep

2x $0.28

The Daily Deagle

2x $0.37

Late Night Transit

2x $0.50

Green Line

1x $0.58

↓

Possible Outputs

Derailment

10.0% $7.13

Breakthrough

35.0% $6.12

Charged Up

10.0% $4.93

Whiteout

10.0% $4.17

Trace Lock

35.0% $2.18

Max Win

$7.13 (+73.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.53 (+10.4%)

Win %

65.0%

Volatility

+45.7%

Cost

$4.10

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.10

Ask Price EV $4.53 (+10.4%)

Bid Price EV $4.04 (-1.5%)

Ask Profit $0.43 (+10.4%)

Bid Profit $-0.06 (-1.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+12.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06

Risk

Win Probability 65.0%

Loss Probability 35.0%

Best Case $7.13 (+73.9%)

Worst Case $2.18 (-46.7%)

Volatility +45.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$1.69

Avg Loss -$1.92

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.18 (-46.7%)

Std Dev $1.87

Avg Norm Float 0.5106

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 147h 48m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.63 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.58 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 20S //TOTAL COST $4.10 //ASK PRICE EV $4.53 //BID PRICE EV $4.04 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+10.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-1.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +45.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.382935,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 6.1165,
      "optimistic_value": 5.91,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 5.33,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.357406,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1835,
      "optimistic_value": 2.18,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.351949Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.357406,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.5399452,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.174,
      "optimistic_value": 4.16,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:26.860230Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.51058,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_44b46fd4a958aa8511e1af5f",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "511864941881349645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:03.980518Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "529879287550318068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:03.980518Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950863706",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:55.222140Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "508487136896542430",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:55.222140Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "500605942755268019",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:03.942685Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "500605942755240839",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:06.700875Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.63,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "606438509297863277",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:26:06.700875Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "523123888073168722",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.173830Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "503983589619599383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.173830Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "511864888986079917",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:44.817995Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.34 Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.65	$64.86 +186.1%	$27.75 +22.4%	65.0%	+66.6%	$22.67	—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Derailment 10.0% $14.86 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.75 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.28	$14.86 +84.2%	$9.01 +11.7%	55.0%	+48.2%	$8.07	—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Charged Up 10.0% $65.07 Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.34 Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.65	$65.07 +106.0%	$31.98 +1.3%	30.0%	+59.0%	$31.58	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.34 Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Charged Up 6.7% $22.78 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.71	$64.86 +211.2%	$25.45 +22.1%	60.0%	+63.4%	$20.84	—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $44.34 Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Charged Up 3.3% $22.78 Trace Lock 45.0% $14.65	$64.86 +233.0%	$23.11 +18.6%	55.0%	+54.3%	$19.48	—
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.79 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.36	$64.86 +149.3%	$30.04 +15.5%	56.7%	+63.7%	$26.02	—
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.79 Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.36	$64.86 +130.6%	$32.39 +15.2%	33.3%	+62.1%	$28.13	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.79 Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.36	$64.86 +110.5%	$34.74 +12.7%	40.0%	+58.5%	$30.82	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 The End 30.0% $159.10	$597.10 +89.8%	$359.77 +14.4%	35.0%	+58.0%	$314.55	—