The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Grip Tape
2x $0.78
Creep
1x $1.43
Aeolian Light
3x $1.87
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Green Line
2x $3.11
Run Run Run
1x $3.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
10.0% $64.86
Derailment
10.0% $43.71
Breakthrough
35.0% $26.93
Charged Up
10.0% $22.86
Trace Lock
35.0% $14.65
Max Win
$64.86 (+183.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.69 (+21.0%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+65.7%
Cost
$22.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.88
Ask Price EV $27.69 (+21.0%)
Bid Price EV $26.39 (+15.3%)
Ask Profit $4.81 (+21.0%)
Bid Profit $3.51 (+15.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.30 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.81
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.51
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+183.5%)
Worst Case $14.65 (-36.0%)
Volatility +65.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$14.00
Avg Loss -$6.41
Bottom 5% Outcome $14.65 (-36.0%)
Std Dev $15.03
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.87 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 25S //TOTAL COST $22.88 //ASK PRICE EV $27.69 //BID PRICE EV $26.39 //ASK PROFIT $4.81 (+21.0%) //BID PROFIT $3.51 (+15.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +65.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$64.86
+$41.98
+183.5%
$61.61
+$38.73
+169.3%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$43.71
+$20.83
+91.1%
$41.54
+$18.66
+81.6%
$2.17
5.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.93
+$4.05
+17.7%
$26.63
+$3.75
+16.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$22.86
-$0.02
-0.1%
$21.50
-$1.38
-6.0%
$1.36
6.0%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$14.65
-$8.23
-36.0%
$13.16
-$9.72
-42.5%
$1.49
10.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06512799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.647,
"optimistic_value": 14.64,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:22:59.857837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06512799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 43.7135,
"optimistic_value": 42.38,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:19.050063Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1474576,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.860500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 22.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:23.672893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_44b46fd4a958aa8511e1af5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "521998040962328694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:37:42.845811Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:10.017177Z"
},
{
"price": 1.87,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "506235442367138652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:57.361793Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368541588481562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:57.361793Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510738989040662074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:57.361793Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "519746241188615516",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:29.942352Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:11.570947Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:23.107359Z"
},
{
"price": 3.38,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "659356415310663082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.14 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +66.2% | $4.75 +29.1% | 65.0% | +35.0% | $3.68 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $5.48 Whiteout 10.0% $4.14 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.19 | $7.13 +79.6% | $4.49 +13.1% | 65.0% | +45.8% | $3.97 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Charged Up 10.0% $7.55 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Whiteout 10.0% $5.23 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.19 | $7.55 +74.7% | $4.80 +11.2% | 65.0% | +46.8% | $4.32 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.14 Trace Lock 40.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +72.3% | $4.72 +33.0% | 60.0% | +38.0% | $3.55 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Derailment 3.3% $7.13 Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Charged Up 3.3% $4.93 Whiteout 3.3% $4.14 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.19 | $7.13 +100.3% | $4.28 +20.1% | 55.0% | +54.6% | $3.56 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.39 Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Charged Up 13.3% $22.78 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +157.8% | $30.09 +19.6% | 56.7% | +65.3% | $25.16 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +138.7% | $32.41 +19.3% | 33.3% | +63.9% | $27.17 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.39 Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Charged Up 20.0% $22.78 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.68 | $64.86 +113.8% | $34.73 +14.5% | 40.0% | +59.1% | $30.34 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 The End  30.0% $159.10 | $597.10 +89.8% | $359.77 +14.4% | 35.0% | +58.0% | $314.55 | — |