The Revolution Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragments
2x $0.12
Re.built
2x $0.14
Liquidation
2x $0.14
Rebel
1x $0.28
VariCamo Blue
3x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
15.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
15.0% $59.98
Sakkaku
14.0% $1.43
Neoqueen
14.0% $1.10
Emphorosaur-S
14.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
14.0% $0.74
Max Win
$80.19 (+48.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.69 (-60.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+59.4%
Cost
$54.17
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $54.17
Ask Price EV $21.69 (-60.0%)
Bid Price EV $18.58 (-65.7%)
Ask Profit $-32.48 (-60.0%)
Bid Profit $-35.59 (-65.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.11 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$32.48
Bid Slippage Buffer -$35.59
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+48.0%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-98.7%)
Volatility +59.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$15.91
Avg Loss -$53.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-98.7%)
Std Dev $32.17
Avg Norm Float 0.2493
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 142h 13m
Oldest Output Price 119h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$17.06 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 00S //TOTAL COST $54.17 //ASK PRICE EV $21.69 //BID PRICE EV $18.58 //ASK PROFIT $-32.48 (-60.0%) //BID PROFIT $-35.59 (-65.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +59.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
15.0%
$80.19
+$26.02
+48.0%
$67.00
+$12.83
+23.7%
$13.19
16.4%
—
PAPER WIN
15.0%
$59.98
+$5.81
+10.7%
$52.76
-$1.41
-2.6%
$7.22
12.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.43
-$52.74
-97.4%
$1.42
-$52.75
-97.4%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.10
-$53.07
-98.0%
$0.93
-$53.24
-98.3%
$0.17
15.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.75
-$53.42
-98.6%
$0.70
-$53.47
-98.7%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.74
-$53.43
-98.6%
$0.69
-$53.48
-98.7%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.69
-$53.48
-98.7%
$0.64
-$53.53
-98.8%
$0.05
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.2445116,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 59.9785,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 52.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:55.908978Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.24934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.187005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.199472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.3546172,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.4335,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:27.189326Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.149604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.1,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:24.279242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.24934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:46.802871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_43fb6b80942649859dfefec4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "503983589619666919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:50:35.591883Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007393480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:50:35.591883Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "518619491424619600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:21.261810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "492724538183290401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:26.052187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "631208917647417314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:26.052187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "521997988015695030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:05.477296Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518620288314147664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:20.828491Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 17.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "655978008938796559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:41.893550Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:7+collection-set-overpass:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Banana Cannon 14.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $5.76 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 14.0% $3.17 | $701.51 +630.5% | $128.87 +34.2% | 30.0% | +250.2% | $96.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Banana Cannon 12.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $5.76 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 12.0% $3.17 | $701.51 +403.7% | $170.25 +22.3% | 20.0% | +189.6% | $139.26 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Overpass Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 25.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 25.0% $135.49 Banana Cannon 10.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $5.76 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 10.0% $3.17 | $701.51 +251.6% | $211.62 +6.1% | 25.0% | +140.4% | $199.54 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Wicked Sick  26.7% $34.62 Wild Child  26.7% $33.67 Duality  26.7% $25.85 | $1,330.91 +493.4% | $291.28 +29.9% | 20.0% | +231.8% | $224.29 | — |