The Huntsman Collection ×2+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Inputs
Heaven Guard
2x $17.25
Ticket to Hell
2x $2.23
Zombie Offensive
4x $2.68
Night Terror
1x $5.35
Dream Glade
1x $11.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Atomic Alloy
5.0% $344.92
Orion
5.0% $311.71
Caiman
5.0% $231.58
Cyrex
5.0% $70.90
Rapid Eye Movement
26.7% $39.42
Abyssal Apparition
26.7% $34.92
Max Win
$344.92 (+296.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$76.72 (-11.9%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+108.3%
Cost
$87.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $87.11
Ask Price EV $76.72 (-11.9%)
Bid Price EV $71.74 (-17.6%)
Ask Profit $-10.39 (-11.9%)
Bid Profit $-15.37 (-17.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $4.99 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$10.39
Bid Slippage Buffer -$15.37
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $344.92 (+296.0%)
Worst Case $33.54 (-61.5%)
Volatility +108.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$208.96
Avg Loss -$49.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $33.54 (-61.5%)
Std Dev $94.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 150h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Heaven Guard
—
Minimal Wear
$17.25 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Heaven Guard
—
Factory New
$31.00 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Ticket to Hell
—
Minimal Wear
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive
—
Factory New
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive
—
Factory New
$2.88 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Night Terror
—
Factory New
$5.35 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Ticket to Hell
—
Factory New
$5.75 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive
—
Factory New
$5.89 Float: HIDDEN
G3SG1 | Dream Glade
—
Factory New
$11.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 08S //TOTAL COST $87.11 //ASK PRICE EV $76.72 //BID PRICE EV $71.74 //ASK PROFIT $-10.39 (-11.9%) //BID PROFIT $-15.37 (-17.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $344.92 //VOLATILITY +108.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$344.92
+$257.81
+296.0%
$288.02
+$200.91
+230.6%
$56.90
16.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$311.71
+$224.60
+257.8%
$292.21
+$205.10
+235.4%
$19.50
6.3%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$231.58
+$144.47
+165.9%
$213.49
+$126.38
+145.1%
$18.09
7.8%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$70.90
-$16.21
-18.6%
$67.82
-$19.29
-22.1%
$3.08
4.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$39.42
-$47.69
-54.7%
$39.19
-$47.92
-55.0%
$0.23
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$34.92
-$52.19
-59.9%
$34.84
-$52.27
-60.0%
$0.08
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$33.54
-$53.57
-61.5%
$33.44
-$53.67
-61.6%
$0.10
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-3|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-3"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"realistic_value": 33.537,
"optimistic_value": 33.53,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"conservative_value": 33.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:26.493885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
"realistic_value": 39.4215,
"optimistic_value": 39.39,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
"conservative_value": 39.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:23.352429Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
"realistic_value": 34.9155,
"optimistic_value": 34.87,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
"conservative_value": 34.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:05.385983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06277500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-196d87753c91",
"realistic_value": 344.91700000000003,
"optimistic_value": 342.18,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy",
"conservative_value": 288.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Huntsman Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:38.126415Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-196d87753c91.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.034875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc6a17b8b04c",
"realistic_value": 70.904,
"optimistic_value": 69,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Cyrex",
"conservative_value": 67.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Huntsman Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:31.182278Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc6a17b8b04c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.027900000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6fcc0ba62469",
"realistic_value": 231.58499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 229.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Caiman",
"conservative_value": 213.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Huntsman Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Caiman (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:49.548678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6fcc0ba62469.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.034875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a503e5d8d0b7",
"realistic_value": 311.7075,
"optimistic_value": 305.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Orion",
"conservative_value": 292.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Huntsman Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Orion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:40.775724Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a503e5d8d0b7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_432a259403de3a742733e5e0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 17.25,
"skin_id": "skin-817e4764952b",
"listing_id": "499479989896976341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Heaven Guard",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-817e4764952b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:06.167213Z"
},
{
"price": 31,
"skin_id": "skin-817e4764952b",
"listing_id": "523123722382957438",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-3",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Heaven Guard (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Heaven Guard",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-817e4764952b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.881746Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"listing_id": "523123091078926198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:14.969852Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"listing_id": "511864888985939913",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"listing_id": "492724590627009681",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
},
{
"price": 2.88,
"skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"listing_id": "492724590627017241",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
},
{
"price": 5.35,
"skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"listing_id": "506234592364721436",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:07.831208Z"
},
{
"price": 5.75,
"skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"listing_id": "520872035663958360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:29.326118Z"
},
{
"price": 5.89,
"skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"listing_id": "492724590627018501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z"
},
{
"price": 11.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"listing_id": "507361123688865805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:16.811721Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-3:2+collection-set-community-30:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Huntsman Collection ×2+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Orion 5.0% $311.71 Caiman 5.0% $231.58 Atomic Alloy 5.0% $75.62 Cyrex 5.0% $70.90 Abyssal Apparition 26.7% $11.38 Rapid Eye Movement 26.7% $11.32 | $311.71 +679.3% | $43.52 +8.8% | 20.0% | +193.7% | $40.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Huntsman Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Orion 7.5% $311.71 Caiman 7.5% $231.58 Atomic Alloy 7.5% $75.62 Cyrex 7.5% $70.90 Melondrama 23.3% $11.55 Rapid Eye Movement 23.3% $11.32 | $311.71 +502.0% | $59.64 +15.2% | 30.0% | +173.8% | $51.78 | — |
The Huntsman Collection ×4+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Orion 10.0% $311.71 Caiman 10.0% $231.58 Atomic Alloy 10.0% $75.62 Cyrex 10.0% $70.43 Abyssal Apparition 20.0% $11.17 Melondrama 20.0% $11.15 | $311.71 +351.0% | $75.62 +9.4% | 40.0% | +142.3% | $69.11 | — |
The Huntsman Collection ×1+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Orion 2.5% $311.71 Caiman 2.5% $231.58 Atomic Alloy 2.5% $75.62 Cyrex 2.5% $70.90 Abyssal Apparition 30.0% $11.29 Melondrama 30.0% $11.15 | $311.71 +1114.3% | $27.32 +6.4% | 10.0% | +224.7% | $25.67 | — |