The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.64
Bock Blocks
3x $1.53
Exchanger
1x $0.70
Co-Processor
2x $1.30
Facility Negative
2x $2.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
16.7% $55.76
Random Access
16.7% $19.60
Core Breach
16.7% $8.54
Electrum
10.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
10.0% $5.02
Galigator
10.0% $3.28
Max Win
$55.76 (+286.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.16 (+12.1%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+128.7%
Cost
$14.41
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.41
Ask Price EV $16.16 (+12.1%)
Bid Price EV $15.75 (+9.3%)
Ask Profit $1.75 (+12.1%)
Bid Profit $1.34 (+9.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.40 (+2.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.75
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.34
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $55.76 (+286.9%)
Worst Case $3.22 (-77.7%)
Volatility +128.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$23.27
Avg Loss -$9.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.22 (-77.7%)
Std Dev $18.54
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 7m
Oldest Output Price 142h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.22 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 15S //TOTAL COST $14.41 //ASK PRICE EV $16.16 //BID PRICE EV $15.75 //ASK PROFIT $1.75 (+12.1%) //BID PROFIT $1.34 (+9.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +128.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$55.76
+$41.35
+286.9%
$55.39
+$40.98
+284.4%
$0.37
0.7%
—
WIN
16.7%
$19.60
+$5.19
+36.0%
$19.55
+$5.14
+35.7%
$0.05
0.3%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$8.54
-$5.87
-40.8%
$8.05
-$6.36
-44.1%
$0.49
5.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.00
-$7.41
-51.4%
$5.93
-$8.48
-58.8%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.02
-$9.39
-65.2%
$3.97
-$10.44
-72.4%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.28
-$11.13
-77.2%
$3.13
-$11.28
-78.3%
$0.15
4.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.24
-$11.17
-77.5%
$3.08
-$11.33
-78.6%
$0.16
4.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.22
-$11.19
-77.7%
$3.11
-$11.30
-78.4%
$0.11
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.6015,
"optimistic_value": 19.57,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:32.776489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06994399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.536,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:33.034300Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2815,
"optimistic_value": 3.25,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:04.891329Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.218,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:14.293138Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.237,
"optimistic_value": 3.23,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:03.392700Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42ff38030d661fce88ac80ae",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "514116688949983218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:05.507397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "492724590626363049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:19:05.507397Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:59.560461Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "762930893774723286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:09.122916Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "498353293067392627",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:09.122916Z"
},
{
"price": 2.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "515242588554759085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-nuke-2:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.51 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.84 +31.4% | 63.3% | +41.1% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 16.7% $55.76 Core Breach 16.7% $29.13 Random Access 16.7% $19.60 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.42 | $55.76 +161.0% | $23.82 +11.5% | 33.3% | +67.3% | $21.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +113.9% | $2.79 +32.0% | 62.7% | +41.6% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +105.2% | $2.90 +31.7% | 56.0% | +40.4% | $2.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +98.8% | $2.95 +29.8% | 58.7% | +39.1% | $2.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.51 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +110.9% | $2.73 +27.6% | 62.0% | +40.3% | $2.14 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.51 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.62 +21.2% | 60.7% | +37.3% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.51 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +103.3% | $2.67 +20.5% | 45.3% | +37.8% | $2.22 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  23.3% $150.19 Remote Control  15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $40.06 Kintsugi  23.3% $39.12 | $418.56 +317.9% | $130.52 +30.3% | 38.3% | +128.6% | $100.15 | — |