The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Bock Blocks
4x $1.55
Fragment
1x $2.56
Exchanger
1x $0.70
Facility Negative
3x $2.27
Acheron
1x $2.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
16.7% $55.76
Core Breach
16.7% $29.13
Random Access
16.7% $19.60
Electrum
10.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
10.0% $12.97
Galigator
10.0% $11.42
Max Win
$55.76 (+161.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.82 (+11.5%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+73.2%
Cost
$21.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.36
Ask Price EV $23.82 (+11.5%)
Bid Price EV $23.06 (+8.0%)
Ask Profit $2.46 (+11.5%)
Bid Profit $1.70 (+8.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.76 (+3.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.70
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $55.76 (+161.0%)
Worst Case $9.90 (-53.7%)
Volatility +73.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$21.08
Avg Loss -$6.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.90 (-53.7%)
Std Dev $15.64
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 142h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$2.56 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Acheron
—
Minimal Wear
$2.65 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 13S //TOTAL COST $21.36 //ASK PRICE EV $23.82 //BID PRICE EV $23.06 //ASK PROFIT $2.46 (+11.5%) //BID PROFIT $1.70 (+8.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +73.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$55.76
+$34.40
+161.0%
$55.39
+$34.03
+159.3%
$0.37
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$29.13
+$7.77
+36.4%
$27.72
+$6.36
+29.8%
$1.41
4.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$19.60
-$1.76
-8.2%
$19.55
-$1.81
-8.5%
$0.05
0.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.50
-$1.86
-8.7%
$17.32
-$4.04
-18.9%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.97
-$8.39
-39.3%
$11.57
-$9.79
-45.8%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.42
-$9.94
-46.5%
$10.67
-$10.69
-50.0%
$0.75
6.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.24
-$11.12
-52.1%
$10.09
-$11.27
-52.8%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.90
-$11.46
-53.7%
$9.86
-$11.50
-53.8%
$0.04
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.6015,
"optimistic_value": 19.57,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:32.776489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:47.427316Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.422500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:43.125961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:46.961791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.897,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:15.186975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42ff38030d661fce88ac80ae",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862497968",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036676887",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:31.108246Z"
},
{
"price": 2.56,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "498354089952808447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:46.804722Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:59.560461Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "491598690699301658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z"
},
{
"price": 2.65,
"skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"listing_id": "496102290328885703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Acheron",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:11.769176Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-nuke-2:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.51 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.84 +31.4% | 63.3% | +41.1% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 16.7% $55.76 Random Access 16.7% $19.60 Core Breach 16.7% $8.54 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.28 | $55.76 +286.9% | $16.16 +12.1% | 33.3% | +122.3% | $14.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +113.9% | $2.79 +32.0% | 62.7% | +41.6% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.51 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +105.2% | $2.90 +31.7% | 56.0% | +40.4% | $2.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.94 | $4.51 +98.8% | $2.95 +29.8% | 58.7% | +39.1% | $2.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.51 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +110.9% | $2.73 +27.6% | 62.0% | +40.3% | $2.14 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.51 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +109.0% | $2.62 +21.2% | 60.7% | +37.3% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.51 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.98 | $4.51 +103.3% | $2.67 +20.5% | 45.3% | +37.8% | $2.22 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  15.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  23.3% $150.19 Remote Control  15.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  23.3% $40.06 Kintsugi  23.3% $39.12 | $418.56 +317.9% | $130.52 +30.3% | 38.3% | +128.6% | $100.15 | — |