The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.17
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Fragment
2x $0.28
Co-Processor
2x $0.18
Exchanger
3x $0.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
16.7% $4.51
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
16.7% $3.34
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Amberline
10.0% $1.85
Max Win
$4.51 (+100.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.82 (+25.5%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+49.4%
Cost
$2.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.25
Ask Price EV $2.82 (+25.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.54 (+13.0%)
Ask Profit $0.57 (+25.5%)
Bid Profit $0.29 (+13.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+12.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $4.51 (+100.6%)
Worst Case $1.51 (-33.0%)
Volatility +49.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.7%
Avg Win +$1.50
Avg Loss -$0.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.51 (-33.0%)
Std Dev $1.11
Avg Norm Float 0.2998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 140h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
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Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 17M 29S //TOTAL COST $2.25 //ASK PRICE EV $2.82 //BID PRICE EV $2.54 //ASK PROFIT $0.57 (+25.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.29 (+13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $4.51 //VOLATILITY +49.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$4.51
+$2.26
+100.6%
$4.04
+$1.79
+79.6%
$0.47
10.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.11
+$1.86
+82.7%
$3.61
+$1.36
+60.4%
$0.50
12.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$3.34
+$1.09
+48.3%
$3.22
+$0.97
+43.1%
$0.12
3.5%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.79
+$0.54
+23.9%
$2.32
+$0.07
+3.1%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.19
-$0.06
-2.8%
$1.74
-$0.51
-22.7%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.85
-$0.40
-17.6%
$1.63
-$0.62
-27.6%
$0.22
12.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.71
-$0.54
-24.0%
$1.63
-$0.62
-27.6%
$0.08
4.7%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$1.51
-$0.74
-33.0%
$1.44
-$0.81
-36.0%
$0.07
4.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.5135,
"optimistic_value": 4.51,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:53.127420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.209888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.507,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:12:53.076922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.854,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:02.019149Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.29984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7105,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:25.234326Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_42ff38030d661fce88ac80ae",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:48.007148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "644719809067758207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:48.007148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072065466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:15.661282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:10.067861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:10.067861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "527627487624170852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:31.284306Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.493367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "508487136896913986",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.493367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "525375688036511467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.493367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "496101493268329235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:31.284306Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-nuke-2:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 16.7% $55.76 Core Breach 16.7% $29.13 Random Access 16.7% $19.60 Electrum 10.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 10.0% $12.97 Galigator 10.0% $11.12 | $55.76 +165.9% | $23.79 +13.4% | 33.3% | +68.7% | $20.97 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 16.7% $55.76 Random Access 16.7% $19.60 Core Breach 16.7% $8.54 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.32 | $55.76 +284.5% | $16.17 +11.5% | 33.3% | +121.5% | $14.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.52 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.73 | $4.52 +116.1% | $2.69 +28.6% | 62.0% | +43.4% | $2.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.52 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.73 | $4.52 +119.3% | $2.63 +27.5% | 61.3% | +43.1% | $2.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.51 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.85 | $4.51 +107.0% | $2.78 +27.4% | 62.7% | +41.1% | $2.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.51 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.85 | $4.51 +89.6% | $2.95 +23.9% | 58.7% | +37.5% | $2.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.52 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.73 | $4.52 +82.1% | $2.87 +15.9% | 56.0% | +37.1% | $2.48 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.60 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.12 | $55.76 +328.2% | $14.95 +14.8% | 28.0% | +64.3% | $13.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.34 Kintsugi  20.0% $39.12 | $418.56 +271.9% | $148.60 +32.1% | 40.0% | +125.3% | $112.53 | — |