The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Basket Halftone
1x $0.11
Grey Ghost
3x $0.12
Steel Work
1x $0.14
Copper Fiber
3x $0.08
Steel Sentinel
2x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
2A2F
12.5% $2.68
Run Run Run
12.5% $2.24
Coral Bloom
8.3% $1.36
Red Tide
8.3% $1.02
Arsenic Spill
8.3% $1.01
Blush Pour
8.3% $0.95
Max Win
$2.68 (+121.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.33 (+9.6%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+56.3%
Cost
$1.21
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.21
Ask Price EV $1.33 (+9.6%)
Bid Price EV $1.26 (+4.4%)
Ask Profit $0.12 (+9.6%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+4.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $2.68 (+121.5%)
Worst Case $0.76 (-37.2%)
Volatility +56.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 29.2%
Avg Win +$0.98
Avg Loss -$0.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.76 (-37.2%)
Std Dev $0.68
Avg Norm Float 0.1736
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 124h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 05M 59S //TOTAL COST $1.21 //ASK PRICE EV $1.33 //BID PRICE EV $1.26 //ASK PROFIT $0.12 (+9.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+4.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $2.68 //VOLATILITY +56.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.68
+$1.47
+121.5%
$2.64
+$1.43
+118.2%
$0.04
1.5%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.24
+$1.03
+85.4%
$2.22
+$1.01
+83.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
PAPER WIN
8.3%
$1.36
+$0.15
+12.0%
$1.15
-$0.06
-5.0%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$1.02
-$0.19
-15.4%
$1.00
-$0.21
-17.4%
$0.02
2.3%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$1.01
-$0.21
-16.9%
$0.89
-$0.32
-26.4%
$0.11
11.4%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.95
-$0.26
-21.2%
$0.82
-$0.39
-32.2%
$0.13
14.0%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.94
-$0.27
-22.3%
$0.89
-$0.32
-26.4%
$0.05
5.3%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.83
-$0.38
-31.4%
$0.82
-$0.39
-32.2%
$0.01
1.2%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.77
-$0.44
-36.0%
$0.74
-$0.47
-38.8%
$0.03
4.5%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$0.76
-$0.45
-37.2%
$0.70
-$0.51
-42.1%
$0.06
7.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14930459999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:30.468788Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:24.353159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.12961288575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.08714544920999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13071808700999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.086805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.76,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:54.082662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.104166,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.7745,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:20.134032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13020749999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:28.774198Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11778240591,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9534999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:23.013266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_403693daaecc62a0ad0dd617",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:57.363198Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "512990789045188967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:51.227662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:51.227662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:51.227662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:46.445289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "524249840858755191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:54.609973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "493850543431657588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:54.609973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532519875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:14.637481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532516563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:14.637481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "492724643507567757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:49.788253Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 | $28.83 +250.3% | $10.56 +28.3% | 50.0% | +93.6% | $8.23 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 12.5% $3.09 Late Night Transit 12.5% $2.82 2A2F 12.5% $2.68 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.24 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.02 | $3.09 +96.8% | $1.84 +17.4% | 50.0% | +44.9% | $1.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 | $28.83 +327.7% | $9.00 +33.5% | 40.0% | +112.6% | $6.74 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 7.5% $28.83 2A2F 7.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 7.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 7.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 11.7% $4.96 Red Tide 11.7% $3.32 | $28.83 +382.9% | $7.44 +24.6% | 30.0% | +120.5% | $5.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  3.3% $64.86 Derailment  3.3% $41.90 Mulberry  30.0% $33.42 Charged Up  3.3% $22.67 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $16.98 Glitched Paint  30.0% $16.80 | $64.86 +220.6% | $24.47 +21.0% | 40.0% | +54.9% | $20.23 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 | $597.10 +96.8% | $365.51 +20.5% | 35.0% | +58.1% | $303.33 | — |