The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Grey Ghost
1x $0.34
Citric Acid
1x $1.19
Steel Work
2x $1.33
Straight Dimes
2x $0.41
Rain Station
1x $0.84
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
12.5% $28.83
2A2F
12.5% $18.79
Late Night Transit
12.5% $14.75
Run Run Run
12.5% $11.23
Coral Bloom
8.3% $4.96
Red Tide
8.3% $3.32
Max Win
$28.83 (+250.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.56 (+28.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+111.2%
Cost
$8.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.23
Ask Price EV $10.56 (+28.3%)
Bid Price EV $9.86 (+19.8%)
Ask Profit $2.33 (+28.3%)
Bid Profit $1.63 (+19.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.70 (+8.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.33
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.63
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+250.3%)
Worst Case $1.78 (-78.4%)
Volatility +111.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.17
Avg Loss -$5.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.78 (-78.4%)
Std Dev $9.15
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 150h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Straight Dimes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Straight Dimes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rain Station
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 05M 44S //TOTAL COST $8.23 //ASK PRICE EV $10.56 //BID PRICE EV $9.86 //ASK PROFIT $2.33 (+28.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.63 (+19.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +111.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$28.83
+$20.60
+250.3%
$26.37
+$18.14
+220.4%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$18.79
+$10.56
+128.3%
$18.05
+$9.82
+119.3%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$14.75
+$6.52
+79.2%
$14.50
+$6.27
+76.2%
$0.25
1.7%
—
WIN
12.5%
$11.23
+$3.00
+36.4%
$9.36
+$1.13
+13.7%
$1.87
16.6%
—
LOSS
8.3%
$4.96
-$3.27
-39.7%
$4.92
-$3.31
-40.2%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$3.32
-$4.91
-59.7%
$3.30
-$4.93
-59.9%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.38
-$5.85
-71.0%
$2.09
-$6.14
-74.6%
$0.29
12.3%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$2.12
-$6.11
-74.3%
$2.09
-$6.14
-74.6%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.80
-$6.43
-78.1%
$1.77
-$6.46
-78.5%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
8.3%
$1.78
-$6.45
-78.4%
$1.77
-$6.46
-78.5%
$0.01
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0599764,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0520661405,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.035006760139999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1175,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052510105339999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.78,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:17.860666Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:43:26.884391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.047313777939999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.384,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:44.518019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_403693daaecc62a0ad0dd617",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:27.552235Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477373962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:20.865256Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:07.503550Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "648097416171584456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:29.452018Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "510738192173825854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:29.452018Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0c162dc3dadb",
"listing_id": "526501640650945301",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Straight Dimes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0c162dc3dadb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:24.847416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-0c162dc3dadb",
"listing_id": "527627487624991292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Straight Dimes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0c162dc3dadb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:24.847416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-1a861a1ce86e",
"listing_id": "526501640650947065",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rain Station (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Rain Station",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a861a1ce86e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:02.234680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "518620341243096976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:22:17.450012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "493850543432011432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:22:17.450012Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 12.5% $3.09 Late Night Transit 12.5% $2.82 2A2F 12.5% $2.68 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.24 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.02 | $3.09 +96.8% | $1.84 +17.4% | 50.0% | +44.9% | $1.57 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | 2A2F 12.5% $2.68 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.24 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.02 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 8.3% $0.95 | $2.68 +121.5% | $1.33 +9.6% | 33.3% | +49.7% | $1.21 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 | $28.83 +327.7% | $9.00 +33.5% | 40.0% | +112.6% | $6.74 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 7.5% $28.83 2A2F 7.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 7.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 7.5% $11.23 Coral Bloom 11.7% $4.96 Red Tide 11.7% $3.32 | $28.83 +382.9% | $7.44 +24.6% | 30.0% | +120.5% | $5.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Radiant Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  3.3% $64.86 Derailment  3.3% $41.90 Mulberry  30.0% $33.42 Charged Up  3.3% $22.67 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $16.98 Glitched Paint  30.0% $16.80 | $64.86 +220.6% | $24.47 +21.0% | 40.0% | +54.9% | $20.23 | — |
The Radiant Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 | $597.10 +96.8% | $365.51 +20.5% | 35.0% | +58.1% | $303.33 | — |