The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragment
3x $0.27
Zubastick
3x $0.41
Bock Blocks
2x $0.43
Exchanger
2x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
6.7% $19.77
Core Breach
6.7% $8.43
Nuclear Garden
6.7% $8.25
Electrum
16.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
16.0% $5.02
Galigator
16.0% $3.34
Max Win
$19.77 (+308.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.89 (+21.8%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+86.2%
Cost
$4.84
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.84
Ask Price EV $5.89 (+21.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.40 (+11.6%)
Ask Profit $1.05 (+21.8%)
Bid Profit $0.56 (+11.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.05
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $19.77 (+308.5%)
Worst Case $3.13 (-35.4%)
Volatility +86.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$3.53
Avg Loss -$1.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.13 (-35.4%)
Std Dev $4.17
Avg Norm Float 0.1396
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 147h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 15S //TOTAL COST $4.84 //ASK PRICE EV $5.89 //BID PRICE EV $5.40 //ASK PROFIT $1.05 (+21.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.56 (+11.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $19.77 //VOLATILITY +86.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$19.77
+$14.93
+308.5%
$19.52
+$14.68
+303.3%
$0.25
1.3%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$8.43
+$3.59
+74.1%
$8.05
+$3.21
+66.3%
$0.38
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$8.25
+$3.41
+70.5%
$7.16
+$2.32
+47.9%
$1.09
13.3%
—
WIN
16.0%
$7.00
+$2.16
+44.6%
$5.93
+$1.09
+22.5%
$1.07
15.2%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$5.02
+$0.18
+3.7%
$3.97
-$0.87
-18.0%
$1.05
20.9%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.34
-$1.50
-30.9%
$3.17
-$1.67
-34.5%
$0.17
5.2%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.15
-$1.69
-34.8%
$3.13
-$1.71
-35.3%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.13
-$1.71
-35.4%
$3.08
-$1.76
-36.4%
$0.05
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.344,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.513155Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.154,
"optimistic_value": 3.14,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:36.252682Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1270000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:45.044296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.772,
"optimistic_value": 19.66,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:21.105821Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09773399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 8.254,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:00.670069Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.13962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.428,
"optimistic_value": 8.4,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:07.305368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3ef481cf8370d8a18a3e98cb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.458190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.458190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "492724590627248901",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:28:15.004952Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "517494388634438914",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.162645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "521997988016516802",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.162645Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850490551072548",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:24.429115Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:28:15.004952Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:28:15.004952Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "501731789729328713",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:09.530288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:09.530288Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-nuke-2:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.33 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +108.4% | $2.64 +26.9% | 61.3% | +40.3% | $2.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 6.7% $55.76 Core Breach 6.7% $29.13 Random Access 6.7% $19.77 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.16 | $55.76 +275.0% | $15.56 +4.6% | 36.0% | +76.0% | $14.87 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.35 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +109.0% | $2.75 +32.3% | 62.7% | +41.2% | $2.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.33 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +100.7% | $2.84 +31.7% | 64.0% | +39.7% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.33 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +110.4% | $2.69 +30.6% | 62.0% | +41.4% | $2.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +100.3% | $2.81 +29.3% | 63.3% | +39.5% | $2.17 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.33 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +86.8% | $2.89 +24.8% | 58.7% | +36.4% | $2.32 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.33 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +96.1% | $2.59 +17.1% | 42.7% | +37.0% | $2.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $39.85 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.72 | $418.56 +263.3% | $148.42 +28.8% | 40.0% | +122.6% | $115.21 | — |