The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
5x $0.42
Fragment
1x $1.61
Bock Blocks
1x $2.04
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Exchanger
1x $0.70
Facility Negative
1x $2.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
6.7% $55.76
Core Breach
6.7% $29.13
Random Access
6.7% $19.77
Electrum
16.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
16.0% $12.97
Galigator
16.0% $11.08
Max Win
$55.76 (+249.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.18 (+7.8%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+72.8%
Cost
$15.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.94
Ask Price EV $17.18 (+7.8%)
Bid Price EV $16.40 (+2.9%)
Ask Profit $1.24 (+7.8%)
Bid Profit $0.46 (+2.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.78 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.46
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+249.8%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-37.3%)
Volatility +72.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$12.11
Avg Loss -$4.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-37.3%)
Std Dev $11.61
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.46 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 11S //TOTAL COST $15.94 //ASK PRICE EV $17.18 //BID PRICE EV $16.40 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+7.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.46 (+2.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +72.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$55.76
+$39.82
+249.8%
$55.39
+$39.45
+247.5%
$0.37
0.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$29.13
+$13.19
+82.8%
$27.72
+$11.78
+73.9%
$1.41
4.8%
—
WIN
6.7%
$19.77
+$3.83
+24.0%
$19.52
+$3.58
+22.5%
$0.25
1.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$19.50
+$3.56
+22.3%
$17.32
+$1.38
+8.7%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$12.97
-$2.97
-18.7%
$11.57
-$4.37
-27.4%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$11.08
-$4.86
-30.5%
$10.78
-$5.16
-32.4%
$0.30
2.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.22
-$5.72
-35.9%
$10.09
-$5.85
-36.7%
$0.13
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.00
-$5.94
-37.3%
$9.98
-$5.96
-37.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0835,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.363927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.224,
"optimistic_value": 10.21,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:25.143140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:41.023170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.03486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.772,
"optimistic_value": 19.66,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:26.466024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.048804,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:48.069371Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3ef481cf8370d8a18a3e98cb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "491598743580366974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850543431869700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:31.715489Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036694203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:15.648711Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "516368541588465506",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:22.865037Z"
},
{
"price": 2.46,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "521997935570196126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:22.865037Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:16.649414Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:42.344841Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-nuke-2:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.28 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +100.8% | $2.60 +22.1% | 61.3% | +40.5% | $2.13 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.77 Core Breach 6.7% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.27 | $19.77 +290.8% | $5.89 +16.3% | 36.0% | +76.7% | $5.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.28 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +103.7% | $2.82 +34.2% | 64.0% | +41.0% | $2.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.28 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +94.5% | $2.87 +30.3% | 58.7% | +38.4% | $2.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.28 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.79 | $4.28 +103.7% | $2.72 +29.6% | 62.7% | +41.1% | $2.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.28 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +98.1% | $2.76 +27.8% | 63.3% | +40.4% | $2.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.28 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +104.7% | $2.66 +27.3% | 62.0% | +41.6% | $2.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.77 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.08 | $55.76 +304.3% | $14.97 +8.5% | 28.0% | +60.7% | $13.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $39.85 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.44 | $418.56 +261.0% | $148.36 +28.0% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $115.95 | — |