The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.34
Necro Jr.
1x $0.39
Fragments
3x $0.31
Cyberforce
3x $0.34
Liquidation
1x $0.49
Rebel
1x $1.88
↓
Possible Outputs
Emphorosaur-S
16.0% $11.80
Ticket to Hell
4.0% $10.13
Banana Cannon
16.0% $8.11
Night Terror
4.0% $7.93
Umbral Rabbit
16.0% $6.89
Dream Glade
4.0% $5.93
Max Win
$11.80 (+50.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.41 (-18.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+41.8%
Cost
$7.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.85
Ask Price EV $6.41 (-18.3%)
Bid Price EV $5.61 (-28.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.44 (-18.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.24 (-28.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.80 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.44
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.24
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $11.80 (+50.4%)
Worst Case $2.25 (-71.4%)
Volatility +41.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.92
Avg Loss -$3.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.65 (-66.2%)
Std Dev $3.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 147h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 49S //TOTAL COST $7.85 //ASK PRICE EV $6.41 //BID PRICE EV $5.61 //ASK PROFIT $-1.44 (-18.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.24 (-28.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $11.80 //VOLATILITY +41.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$11.80
+$3.95
+50.4%
$10.16
+$2.31
+29.4%
$1.64
13.9%
—
WIN
4.0%
$10.13
+$2.28
+29.0%
$8.42
+$0.57
+7.3%
$1.71
16.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$8.11
+$0.26
+3.2%
$6.70
-$1.15
-14.6%
$1.41
17.3%
—
SMALL WIN
4.0%
$7.93
+$0.08
+1.0%
$7.88
+$0.03
+0.4%
$0.05
0.6%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$6.89
-$0.96
-12.2%
$6.18
-$1.67
-21.3%
$0.71
10.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$5.93
-$1.92
-24.5%
$5.08
-$2.77
-35.3%
$0.85
14.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.33
-$4.52
-57.6%
$3.08
-$4.77
-60.8%
$0.25
7.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.99
-$4.87
-62.0%
$2.62
-$5.23
-66.6%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$5.20
-66.2%
$2.41
-$5.44
-69.3%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.25
-$5.60
-71.4%
$2.13
-$5.72
-72.9%
$0.12
5.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 6.893,
"optimistic_value": 6.62,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:47.851934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.250571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:47.151798Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.105,
"optimistic_value": 8,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:54.534429Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.9285,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:39:07.914888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 7.931,
"optimistic_value": 7.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:38.404570Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0468665,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.053162,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.034975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.248,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:58.858132Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3cffc36cce36fcbfd10285b8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "518620122755714344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:07.309799Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "510738989041283650",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:10.770543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "658230515398900238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "516368488725172886",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.864397Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:24.271956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:05.903745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "524249787961735143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:24.271956Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "525375688037147803",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:43.418221Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:23.598194Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:22:57.420423Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:2+collection-set-community-32:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 16.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 16.0% $1.41 | $4.12 +88.3% | $2.39 +9.3% | 56.0% | +44.1% | $2.19 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 16.0% $2.65 Banana Cannon 16.0% $1.73 | $4.12 +69.0% | $2.55 +4.7% | 56.0% | +34.8% | $2.44 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Revolution Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.36 | $4.12 +114.8% | $2.34 +21.6% | 48.0% | +54.0% | $1.92 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 12.0% $1.41 | $4.12 +108.3% | $2.37 +19.6% | 52.0% | +50.3% | $1.98 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.36 | $4.12 +109.3% | $2.35 +19.3% | 50.0% | +51.7% | $1.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Revolution Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.36 | $4.12 +94.5% | $2.33 +9.7% | 46.0% | +49.6% | $2.12 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Revolution Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 4.0% $2.65 Neoqueen 4.0% $1.36 | $4.12 +83.3% | $2.32 +3.0% | 44.0% | +47.4% | $2.25 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Temukau  30.0% $126.64 Starlight Protector  20.0% $98.54 Nightwish  20.0% $92.29 Head Shot  30.0% $46.53 | $126.64 +60.9% | $90.12 +14.5% | 70.0% | +39.9% | $78.70 | — |