The Revolution Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Re.built
6x $0.29
Fragments
2x $0.41
Featherweight
1x $1.63
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
2.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
2.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
2.5% $26.30
Emphorosaur-S
18.0% $5.72
Umbral Rabbit
18.0% $4.30
Max Win
$313.93 (+2366.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.13 (+11.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+388.0%
Cost
$12.73
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.73
Ask Price EV $14.13 (+11.0%)
Bid Price EV $12.26 (-3.7%)
Ask Profit $1.40 (+11.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.47 (-3.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.87 (+14.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.47
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $313.93 (+2366.1%)
Worst Case $1.44 (-88.7%)
Volatility +388.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$99.30
Avg Loss -$9.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.44 (-88.7%)
Std Dev $49.39
Avg Norm Float 0.0869
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 139h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.90 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 19S //TOTAL COST $12.73 //ASK PRICE EV $14.13 //BID PRICE EV $12.26 //ASK PROFIT $1.40 (+11.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.47 (-3.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +388.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$313.93
+$301.20
+2366.1%
$251.97
+$239.24
+1879.3%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$57.94
+$45.21
+355.2%
$55.32
+$42.59
+334.6%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.92
+$37.19
+292.2%
$43.25
+$30.52
+239.7%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$26.30
+$13.57
+106.6%
$23.55
+$10.82
+85.0%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$5.72
-$7.01
-55.0%
$5.68
-$7.05
-55.4%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.30
-$8.43
-66.2%
$4.29
-$8.44
-66.3%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.17
-$9.56
-75.1%
$3.16
-$9.57
-75.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.61
-$11.12
-87.3%
$1.58
-$11.15
-87.6%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.44
-$11.29
-88.7%
$1.42
-$11.31
-88.8%
$0.02
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06519749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:31:17.042878Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.069544,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.724,
"optimistic_value": 5.71,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:10.004603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.26041939999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:42.809772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052157999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:41.206668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08693,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T10:05:40.697941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.017386,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.069544,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.017386,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.017386,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3ba6c293156eb96203a75faf",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "491598690698787182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:18.394506Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "520871922576571416",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:18.394506Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "520872035662847616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:32.388120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:18.394506Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "508487136897460754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:59.564452Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "529879235107612080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:41.240074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "500605837398095303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:41.240074Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "517494222851162194",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:40.691696Z"
},
{
"price": 1.9,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "508487136897015110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:41.240074Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:09.717431Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +1003.8% | $35.88 +26.2% | 22.5% | +275.2% | $28.44 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +742.3% | $46.76 +25.5% | 30.0% | +234.1% | $37.27 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +576.9% | $57.64 +24.3% | 37.5% | +203.4% | $46.38 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +1455.7% | $25.00 +23.9% | 20.0% | +328.2% | $20.18 | — |