The Revolution Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Re.built
4x $0.12
Fragments
2x $0.13
Rebel
2x $0.14
Insomnia
1x $0.27
Blue Fissure
1x $3.68
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
2.5% $49.92
Heirloom
2.5% $30.23
Tread Plate
2.5% $26.30
Emphorosaur-S
18.0% $1.55
Sakkaku
18.0% $1.44
Max Win
$57.94 (+938.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.19 (-7.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+227.3%
Cost
$5.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.58
Ask Price EV $5.19 (-7.0%)
Bid Price EV $4.75 (-14.8%)
Ask Profit $-0.39 (-7.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.83 (-14.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.39
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.83
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $57.94 (+938.4%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-88.0%)
Volatility +227.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$35.52
Avg Loss -$4.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-88.0%)
Std Dev $12.68
Avg Norm Float 0.1739
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Insomnia
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 44S //TOTAL COST $5.58 //ASK PRICE EV $5.19 //BID PRICE EV $4.75 //ASK PROFIT $-0.39 (-7.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.83 (-14.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $57.94 //VOLATILITY +227.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$57.94
+$52.36
+938.4%
$55.32
+$49.74
+891.4%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.92
+$44.34
+794.7%
$43.25
+$37.67
+675.1%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$30.23
+$24.65
+441.8%
$27.63
+$22.05
+395.2%
$2.60
8.6%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$26.30
+$20.72
+371.4%
$23.55
+$17.97
+322.0%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.55
-$4.04
-72.3%
$1.44
-$4.14
-74.2%
$0.10
6.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.44
-$4.14
-74.2%
$1.42
-$4.16
-74.6%
$0.02
1.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.26
-$4.32
-77.4%
$1.19
-$4.39
-78.7%
$0.07
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.09
-$4.49
-80.5%
$0.93
-$4.65
-83.3%
$0.16
14.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.67
-$4.91
-88.0%
$0.62
-$4.96
-88.9%
$0.05
7.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.1304175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 1.263,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:48.516606Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.13911199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.545,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:57.862097Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.3108562,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:15.092499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.104334,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.09,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:50.869159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.17389,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:02.964096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.034777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.13911199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 30.2305,
"optimistic_value": 29.73,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 27.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:44.410262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.034777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.034777999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3ba6c293156eb96203a75faf",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "503983589619185239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:51.622481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007393480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:18.422237Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "510738936595038790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:51.622481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496101493273506035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:12.591180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "503983589619190279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:45.597402Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "511864888983831753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:12.673701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-e6a7543c4187",
"listing_id": "523123888072177534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Insomnia (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Insomnia",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6a7543c4187.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:53.536245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "502857689862111688",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:34.551824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "491598690698787182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:45.597402Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "505109489448511904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:55.565353Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 18.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 18.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +2345.0% | $14.13 +10.0% | 10.0% | +378.4% | $12.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $5.75 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +996.9% | $35.89 +25.4% | 22.5% | +273.4% | $28.62 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $5.75 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +736.9% | $46.76 +24.7% | 30.0% | +232.6% | $37.51 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +573.7% | $57.64 +23.7% | 37.5% | +202.4% | $46.60 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +1446.5% | $25.00 +23.2% | 20.0% | +326.3% | $20.30 | — |