The Revolution Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragments
1x $0.41
Re.built
3x $0.43
Cyberforce
2x $1.61
Featherweight
1x $1.63
Rebel
2x $2.31
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
2.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
2.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
2.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
2.5% $26.30
Banana Cannon
18.0% $9.07
Emphorosaur-S
18.0% $5.72
Max Win
$313.93 (+1726.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.47 (-10.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+285.8%
Cost
$17.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.19
Ask Price EV $15.47 (-10.0%)
Bid Price EV $13.60 (-20.9%)
Ask Profit $-1.72 (-10.0%)
Bid Profit $-3.59 (-20.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.87 (+10.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.59
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $313.93 (+1726.3%)
Worst Case $1.44 (-91.6%)
Volatility +285.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$94.84
Avg Loss -$12.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.44 (-91.6%)
Std Dev $49.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$2.39 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 47S //TOTAL COST $17.19 //ASK PRICE EV $15.47 //BID PRICE EV $13.60 //ASK PROFIT $-1.72 (-10.0%) //BID PROFIT $-3.59 (-20.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +285.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$313.93
+$296.74
+1726.3%
$251.97
+$234.78
+1365.8%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$57.94
+$40.75
+237.1%
$55.32
+$38.13
+221.8%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.92
+$32.73
+190.4%
$43.25
+$26.06
+151.6%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$26.30
+$9.11
+53.0%
$23.55
+$6.36
+37.0%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.07
-$8.12
-47.3%
$9.05
-$8.14
-47.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$5.72
-$11.47
-66.7%
$5.68
-$11.51
-67.0%
$0.04
0.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.30
-$12.89
-75.0%
$4.29
-$12.90
-75.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.17
-$14.02
-81.6%
$3.16
-$14.03
-81.6%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.44
-$15.75
-91.6%
$1.42
-$15.77
-91.7%
$0.02
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:25.640336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.055952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.7175,
"optimistic_value": 5.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:08.104977Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.2505652,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:02:15.092499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:25:29.924699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.067,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:19:31.233390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.055952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3ba6c293156eb96203a75faf",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "520872035662847616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:12.673701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:45.597402Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "529879235107612080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:25.507658Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "499479989895991957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:25.507658Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "492723793455468849",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:48.012088Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "510738823412252854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:48.012088Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "517494222851162194",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:52:55.407165Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "751679596833965231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:12.501236Z"
},
{
"price": 2.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "635711176390689689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:12.501236Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:55.565353Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:9+collection-set-weapons-iii:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 18.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 18.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +2345.0% | $14.13 +10.0% | 10.0% | +378.4% | $12.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $5.75 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +996.9% | $35.89 +25.4% | 22.5% | +273.4% | $28.62 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $5.75 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +736.9% | $46.76 +24.7% | 30.0% | +232.6% | $37.51 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +573.7% | $57.64 +23.7% | 37.5% | +202.4% | $46.60 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $5.72 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $4.30 | $313.93 +1446.5% | $25.00 +23.2% | 20.0% | +326.3% | $20.30 | — |