The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Calf Skin
3x $0.28
Nitro
1x $0.36
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
Mustard Gas
2x $0.15
Leafhopper
1x $0.16
Garter-9
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Check Engine
10.0% $3.77
Converter
10.0% $3.67
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Hand Brake
10.0% $2.79
Brake Light
10.0% $1.73
Max Win
$4.61 (+107.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.59 (+16.7%)
Win %
54.0%
Volatility
+60.9%
Cost
$2.22
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.22
Ask Price EV $2.59 (+16.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.43 (+9.3%)
Ask Profit $0.37 (+16.7%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+9.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+7.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.37
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 54.0%
Loss Probability 46.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+107.7%)
Worst Case $0.48 (-78.4%)
Volatility +60.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$1.51
Avg Loss -$0.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.48 (-78.4%)
Std Dev $1.35
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 124h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 33S //TOTAL COST $2.22 //ASK PRICE EV $2.59 //BID PRICE EV $2.43 //ASK PROFIT $0.37 (+16.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+9.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 54.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +60.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$4.61
+$2.39
+107.7%
$3.81
+$1.59
+71.6%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.77
+$1.55
+70.0%
$3.65
+$1.43
+64.4%
$0.12
3.3%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.67
+$1.45
+65.4%
$3.60
+$1.38
+62.2%
$0.07
2.0%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$3.67
+$1.45
+65.4%
$3.64
+$1.42
+64.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.79
+$0.57
+25.5%
$2.59
+$0.37
+16.7%
$0.20
7.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.73
-$0.49
-22.0%
$1.67
-$0.55
-24.8%
$0.06
3.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.57
-$0.65
-29.5%
$1.49
-$0.73
-32.9%
$0.07
4.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.29
-$0.93
-41.9%
$1.28
-$0.94
-42.3%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.48
-$1.74
-78.4%
$0.41
-$1.81
-81.5%
$0.07
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08726249999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.07911800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.48,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.565,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:03.136472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06399250000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.082911Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04654,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.6719999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:51.877587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.7855,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 2.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:20.905725Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.009308,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:31.130244Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 3.76,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.300566Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_38ef69127aee633703737369",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "491598743580578618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.967796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "503983642532902519",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.967796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "658230515401384094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.967796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "519746241188634056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:39.785957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "518620341243201844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:33.722624Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006725396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:39.785957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "493850543432165764",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:27:45.778398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242423032787825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:33.722624Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123940969116258",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.109398Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Check Engine 10.0% $1.98 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +234.1% | $1.69 +22.5% | 64.0% | +74.2% | $1.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Check Engine 2.5% $1.98 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Brake Light 2.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +294.0% | $1.57 +34.5% | 46.0% | +110.9% | $1.17 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $1.98 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Brake Light 5.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +277.9% | $1.61 +32.1% | 52.0% | +99.2% | $1.22 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.00 Check Engine 7.5% $1.98 Converter 7.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Brake Light 7.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +260.2% | $1.65 +28.7% | 58.0% | +87.6% | $1.28 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Converter 12.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +181.1% | $1.94 +18.5% | 70.0% | +64.0% | $1.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Converter 15.0% $3.67 Hand Brake 15.0% $2.00 Check Engine 15.0% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Brake Light 15.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +157.5% | $2.03 +13.2% | 61.0% | +54.6% | $1.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo  20.0% $55.48 Fade  20.0% $50.33 Safety Net  20.0% $35.52 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $17.10 Glockingbird  20.0% $11.97 | $55.48 +76.9% | $34.08 +8.7% | 60.0% | +55.3% | $31.36 | — |