The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Calf Skin
1x $0.16
Candy Apple
1x $0.17
Nitro
2x $0.17
Marsh
2x $0.07
Leafhopper
3x $0.08
Mustard Gas
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Hand Brake
10.0% $2.00
Check Engine
10.0% $1.98
Converter
10.0% $1.91
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $1.82
Brake Light
10.0% $1.73
Max Win
$4.61 (+227.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.68 (+19.4%)
Win %
64.0%
Volatility
+90.6%
Cost
$1.41
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.41
Ask Price EV $1.68 (+19.4%)
Bid Price EV $1.51 (+7.2%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+19.4%)
Bid Profit $0.10 (+7.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Risk
Win Probability 64.0%
Loss Probability 36.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+227.0%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-70.9%)
Volatility +90.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$0.99
Avg Loss -$0.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-70.9%)
Std Dev $1.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 123h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 56S //TOTAL COST $1.41 //ASK PRICE EV $1.68 //BID PRICE EV $1.51 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+19.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.10 (+7.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 64.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +90.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.61
+$3.20
+227.0%
$3.81
+$2.40
+170.2%
$0.80
17.4%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.00
+$0.59
+42.1%
$1.75
+$0.34
+24.1%
$0.25
12.7%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.98
+$0.57
+40.2%
$1.90
+$0.49
+34.8%
$0.08
3.9%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.91
+$0.50
+35.5%
$1.80
+$0.39
+27.7%
$0.11
5.8%
—
WIN
12.0%
$1.82
+$0.41
+29.1%
$1.70
+$0.29
+20.6%
$0.12
6.6%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.73
+$0.32
+22.7%
$1.68
+$0.27
+19.1%
$0.05
2.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.42
-$0.99
-70.0%
$0.41
-$1.00
-70.9%
$0.01
3.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.42
-$0.99
-70.4%
$0.38
-$1.03
-73.0%
$0.04
8.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.41
-$1.00
-70.9%
$0.36
-$1.05
-74.5%
$0.05
12.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.13551040000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11956800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.417,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:39.275072Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.10960400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11956800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.41,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.079712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 1.9104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 1.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:25.176715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.0035,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:35:49.779017Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.015942400000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:22.360470Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11956800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:26.789249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_38ef69127aee633703737369",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "523123940968691710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:23.572989Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "515242536110409049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:26.601679Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "502857742726643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "507360492287840917",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:40.531155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:40.531155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:32.759764Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "529879340431992396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:03.737610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "493850543432165764",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:36:03.737610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242423032787825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:24.714018Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Converter 10.0% $3.79 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +105.8% | $2.59 +15.8% | 54.0% | +44.3% | $2.24 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Check Engine 2.5% $2.01 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Brake Light 2.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +290.7% | $1.58 +33.6% | 46.0% | +109.8% | $1.18 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $1.99 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Brake Light 5.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +268.8% | $1.61 +29.0% | 52.0% | +96.8% | $1.25 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.00 Check Engine 7.5% $1.98 Converter 7.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Brake Light 7.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +249.2% | $1.65 +25.0% | 58.0% | +84.8% | $1.32 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Converter 12.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +181.1% | $1.94 +18.5% | 70.0% | +64.0% | $1.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Converter 15.0% $3.79 Hand Brake 15.0% $2.00 Check Engine 15.0% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Brake Light 15.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +157.5% | $2.04 +14.0% | 61.0% | +56.1% | $1.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo  20.0% $55.48 Fade  20.0% $50.33 Safety Net  20.0% $35.52 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $17.66 Glockingbird  20.0% $11.97 | $55.48 +77.5% | $34.19 +9.4% | 60.0% | +55.1% | $31.25 | — |