The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Candy Apple
1x $0.35
Nitro
3x $0.35
Garter-9
1x $0.20
Marsh
2x $0.35
Mustard Gas
2x $0.35
Acid Dart
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $10.66
Hand Brake
10.0% $9.30
Check Engine
10.0% $3.77
Converter
10.0% $3.67
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Brake Light
10.0% $1.73
Max Win
$10.66 (+89.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.09 (-27.4%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+58.8%
Cost
$5.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.64
Ask Price EV $4.09 (-27.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.93 (-30.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.55 (-27.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.71 (-30.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.71
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+89.0%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-77.1%)
Volatility +58.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 78.0%
Avg Win +$4.40
Avg Loss -$3.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-77.1%)
Std Dev $3.32
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 124h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 38S //TOTAL COST $5.64 //ASK PRICE EV $4.09 //BID PRICE EV $3.93 //ASK PROFIT $-1.55 (-27.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.71 (-30.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +58.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$10.66
+$5.02
+89.0%
$9.81
+$4.17
+73.9%
$0.85
8.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.30
+$3.66
+64.9%
$9.06
+$3.42
+60.6%
$0.24
2.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.77
-$1.87
-33.1%
$3.65
-$1.99
-35.3%
$0.12
3.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.67
-$1.97
-34.9%
$3.60
-$2.04
-36.2%
$0.07
2.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.67
-$1.97
-34.9%
$3.64
-$2.00
-35.5%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.73
-$3.91
-69.3%
$1.67
-$3.97
-70.4%
$0.06
3.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.57
-$4.08
-72.3%
$1.49
-$4.15
-73.6%
$0.07
4.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.53
-$4.11
-72.9%
$1.52
-$4.12
-73.0%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.29
-$4.35
-77.1%
$1.28
-$4.36
-77.3%
$0.01
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.052402500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0475116,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.565,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:03.136472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.038428500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.082911Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.027948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.6719999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:51.877587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 9.298,
"optimistic_value": 9.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:51:31.434942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0055896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:31.130244Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 3.76,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.300566Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_38ef69127aee633703737369",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "493850543431779772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.579763Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "519746241188634056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "516368436281895074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123940969116258",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.109398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472843632905447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:04.910146Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375740885567815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:52.487289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "529879340432206884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:19.764710Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:52.487289Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:04.910146Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Check Engine 10.0% $1.98 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +234.1% | $1.69 +22.5% | 64.0% | +74.2% | $1.38 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Check Engine 10.0% $3.77 Converter 10.0% $3.67 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +107.7% | $2.59 +16.7% | 54.0% | +44.2% | $2.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Check Engine 2.5% $1.98 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Brake Light 2.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +294.0% | $1.57 +34.5% | 46.0% | +110.9% | $1.17 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $1.98 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Brake Light 5.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +277.9% | $1.61 +32.1% | 52.0% | +99.2% | $1.22 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.00 Check Engine 7.5% $1.98 Converter 7.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Brake Light 7.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +260.2% | $1.65 +28.7% | 58.0% | +87.6% | $1.28 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Converter 12.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 | $4.61 +181.1% | $1.94 +18.5% | 70.0% | +64.0% | $1.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Converter 15.0% $3.67 Hand Brake 15.0% $2.00 Check Engine 15.0% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Brake Light 15.0% $1.73 | $4.61 +157.5% | $2.03 +13.2% | 61.0% | +54.6% | $1.79 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo  20.0% $55.48 Fade  20.0% $50.33 Safety Net  20.0% $35.52 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $17.10 Glockingbird  20.0% $11.97 | $55.48 +76.9% | $34.08 +8.7% | 60.0% | +55.3% | $31.36 | — |