The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.23
Bulkhead
1x $0.49
Mainframe
2x $0.93
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.32
Wash me plz
2x $0.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
15.0% $17.37
Pipsqueak
10.0% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
10.0% $5.10
Exchanger
15.0% $2.42
Co-Processor
15.0% $2.26
Metallic Squeezer
10.0% $2.23
Max Win
$17.37 (+191.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.28 (-11.5%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+88.9%
Cost
$5.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.96
Ask Price EV $5.28 (-11.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.12 (-14.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.68 (-11.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.84 (-14.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+2.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.68
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.84
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $17.37 (+191.5%)
Worst Case $2.19 (-63.3%)
Volatility +88.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$7.19
Avg Loss -$3.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.19 (-63.3%)
Std Dev $5.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 140h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 48S //TOTAL COST $5.96 //ASK PRICE EV $5.28 //BID PRICE EV $5.12 //ASK PROFIT $-0.68 (-11.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.84 (-14.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +88.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$17.37
+$11.41
+191.5%
$16.98
+$11.02
+184.9%
$0.39
2.2%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$6.82
+$0.86
+14.5%
$6.71
+$0.75
+12.6%
$0.11
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$5.10
-$0.86
-14.4%
$4.87
-$1.09
-18.3%
$0.23
4.5%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.42
-$3.54
-59.4%
$2.37
-$3.59
-60.2%
$0.05
2.1%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.26
-$3.70
-62.1%
$2.04
-$3.92
-65.8%
$0.22
9.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.23
-$3.73
-62.5%
$2.18
-$3.78
-63.4%
$0.05
2.4%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.23
-$3.73
-62.6%
$2.16
-$3.80
-63.8%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.19
-$3.77
-63.3%
$2.13
-$3.83
-64.3%
$0.06
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0579838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.26,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:15.948497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4219999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:44.119045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:00.964814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.2335000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:18.909386Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.188,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:45.707390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06287400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:41.514523Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_356e7edda6348acd1db5eb29",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "497228137696325273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:30.615333Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:30.615333Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:30.615333Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "509613036859100271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:36.762571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:11.291755Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:11.291755Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "490472790736935195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:47.040889Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "519746188258518776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:26.775973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "501731737286075237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:26.206013Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "502857637418221228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:26.206013Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:6+collection-set-overpass-2024:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.55 Exchanger 15.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.26 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.19 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 | $2.55 +73.6% | $1.95 +33.0% | 70.0% | +28.2% | $1.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  10.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  10.0% $33.50 Control Panel  40.0% $26.29 Remote Control  40.0% $4.11 | $47.63 +152.4% | $20.27 +7.4% | 60.0% | +77.0% | $18.87 | — |