The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Dark Chamber
2x $0.09
Aeolian Dark
3x $0.11
Steel Sentinel
2x $0.11
Copper Fiber
3x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
12.5% $3.23
Late Night Transit
12.5% $3.00
2A2F
12.5% $2.75
Run Run Run
12.5% $2.67
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $1.04
Creep
12.5% $0.94
Max Win
$3.23 (+99.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.90 (+17.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+63.6%
Cost
$1.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.62
Ask Price EV $1.90 (+17.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.76 (+8.9%)
Ask Profit $0.28 (+17.1%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+8.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+8.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $3.23 (+99.4%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-53.9%)
Volatility +63.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$1.29
Avg Loss -$0.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-53.9%)
Std Dev $1.03
Avg Norm Float 0.1498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 00S //TOTAL COST $1.62 //ASK PRICE EV $1.90 //BID PRICE EV $1.76 //ASK PROFIT $0.28 (+17.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+8.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $3.23 //VOLATILITY +63.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.23
+$1.61
+99.4%
$3.14
+$1.52
+93.8%
$0.09
2.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.00
+$1.38
+85.4%
$2.81
+$1.19
+73.5%
$0.19
6.4%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.75
+$1.13
+69.5%
$2.66
+$1.04
+64.2%
$0.09
3.1%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.67
+$1.05
+64.8%
$2.46
+$0.84
+51.9%
$0.21
7.9%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.04
-$0.58
-36.1%
$0.84
-$0.78
-48.1%
$0.20
18.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.94
-$0.68
-42.0%
$0.83
-$0.79
-48.8%
$0.11
11.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.81
-$0.81
-50.2%
$0.71
-$0.91
-56.2%
$0.10
12.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.75
-$0.87
-53.9%
$0.66
-$0.96
-59.3%
$0.09
11.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11980800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:33:40.849988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0868608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.0350000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.405074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1287936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.7455000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.7,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:57.675515Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 3.2305,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 3.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:07.805716Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.807,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:53.383584Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.097344,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.747,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:17.321797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 3.0035,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:06.007286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11180707200000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.67,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:25.002350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_33fe66daae447d86f915da14",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "518620288314527860",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.176568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "512990789045321231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:12.176568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "524249787962194179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:56.201762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:56.201762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:56.201762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "493850490550429948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:26.170370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "524249529998376579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:03:26.170370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "503983589619789067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:02:44.700824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "500605724252437931",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:02:44.700824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "502857637416914716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:02:44.700824Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Creep 12.5% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.32 | $28.83 +252.4% | $10.30 +25.9% | 50.0% | +102.5% | $8.18 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | 2A2F 12.5% $2.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.67 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.04 Green Line 12.5% $0.99 Creep 12.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 12.5% $0.86 | $2.75 +128.8% | $1.35 +12.4% | 25.0% | +61.3% | $1.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Creep 7.5% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.32 | $28.83 +163.0% | $13.54 +23.5% | 70.0% | +74.0% | $10.96 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 20.0% $28.83 2A2F 20.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 20.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 20.0% $11.23 Creep 5.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +132.5% | $15.16 +22.2% | 60.0% | +62.2% | $12.40 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Creep 10.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.33 | $28.83 +188.0% | $11.92 +19.0% | 60.0% | +83.3% | $10.01 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Creep 15.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +274.9% | $8.67 +12.8% | 40.0% | +106.6% | $7.69 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  6.7% $64.86 Derailment  6.7% $44.72 Breakthrough  40.0% $26.93 Charged Up  6.7% $22.78 Trace Lock  40.0% $14.34 | $64.86 +206.8% | $25.33 +19.8% | 60.0% | +63.3% | $21.14 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 The End  20.0% $159.10 | $597.10 +73.6% | $388.44 +12.9% | 40.0% | +51.6% | $344.04 | — |