The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Dark Chamber
2x $0.10
Aeolian Dark
3x $0.12
Copper Fiber
4x $0.09
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
2A2F
12.5% $2.75
Run Run Run
12.5% $2.63
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $1.12
Green Line
12.5% $0.99
Creep
12.5% $0.94
Late Night Transit
12.5% $0.89
Max Win
$2.75 (+128.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.36 (+13.5%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+64.4%
Cost
$1.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.20
Ask Price EV $1.36 (+13.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.24 (+3.5%)
Ask Profit $0.16 (+13.5%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+3.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $2.75 (+128.8%)
Worst Case $0.77 (-35.5%)
Volatility +64.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 37.5%
Avg Win +$1.49
Avg Loss -$0.28
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.77 (-35.5%)
Std Dev $0.77
Avg Norm Float 0.1743
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 35m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 08S //TOTAL COST $1.20 //ASK PRICE EV $1.36 //BID PRICE EV $1.24 //ASK PROFIT $0.16 (+13.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+3.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $2.75 //VOLATILITY +64.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.75
+$1.55
+128.8%
$2.66
+$1.46
+121.7%
$0.09
3.1%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.63
+$1.43
+119.2%
$2.46
+$1.26
+105.0%
$0.17
6.5%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.12
-$0.08
-6.9%
$0.84
-$0.36
-30.0%
$0.28
24.8%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.99
-$0.21
-17.5%
$0.96
-$0.24
-20.0%
$0.03
3.0%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.94
-$0.26
-21.7%
$0.83
-$0.37
-30.8%
$0.11
11.7%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.89
-$0.31
-25.8%
$0.82
-$0.38
-31.7%
$0.07
7.9%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.80
-$0.40
-33.0%
$0.71
-$0.49
-40.8%
$0.09
11.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.77
-$0.43
-35.5%
$0.66
-$0.54
-45.0%
$0.11
14.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.139448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:38.275221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.10109979999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.1175,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 0.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:42.368133Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1499066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.7455000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.7,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:25.506992Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17431,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.99,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:16.453795Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1307325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:02.931772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1133015,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:25.490911Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17431,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.89,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:23.170947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.13013548825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.631,
"optimistic_value": 2.61,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:57.352784Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_33fe66daae447d86f915da14",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "512990789045321231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:50.368725Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "524249787961127499",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:50.781100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "524249787961191615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:50.368725Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:50.781100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:50.781100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "514116688948728978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "498354089952584707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "490472738290711647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:33.037453Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "527627487625015160",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:13:32.663896Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "527627487624993560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:48.906708Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Creep 12.5% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.32 | $28.83 +270.5% | $10.30 +32.4% | 50.0% | +107.8% | $7.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 12.5% $3.23 Late Night Transit 12.5% $2.99 2A2F 12.5% $2.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.63 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.12 Creep 12.5% $0.94 | $3.23 +100.7% | $1.90 +18.3% | 50.0% | +52.6% | $1.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Creep 7.5% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.32 | $28.83 +183.5% | $13.54 +33.1% | 70.0% | +79.7% | $10.17 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Creep 10.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +206.7% | $11.92 +26.8% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $9.40 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Creep 15.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +313.0% | $8.68 +24.3% | 40.0% | +117.4% | $6.98 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 20.0% $28.83 2A2F 20.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 20.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 20.0% $11.23 Creep 5.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +133.2% | $15.16 +22.6% | 60.0% | +62.4% | $12.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough  35.0% $6.12 Derailment  10.0% $5.85 Charged Up  10.0% $4.93 Whiteout  10.0% $4.17 Trace Lock  35.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +57.2% | $4.75 +22.2% | 65.0% | +33.1% | $3.89 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 The End  20.0% $159.10 | $597.10 +71.7% | $388.44 +11.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $347.78 | — |