The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.35
Aeolian Dark
2x $1.01
Dark Chamber
1x $1.12
Steel Sentinel
2x $0.41
Rain Station
1x $0.87
Constructivist
1x $0.88
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
12.5% $28.83
2A2F
12.5% $18.79
Late Night Transit
12.5% $14.75
Run Run Run
12.5% $11.23
Creep
12.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.32
Max Win
$28.83 (+270.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.30 (+32.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+120.1%
Cost
$7.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.78
Ask Price EV $10.30 (+32.4%)
Bid Price EV $9.61 (+23.5%)
Ask Profit $2.52 (+32.4%)
Bid Profit $1.83 (+23.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+8.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.83
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+270.5%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-75.6%)
Volatility +120.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.62
Avg Loss -$5.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-75.6%)
Std Dev $9.35
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 146h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.01 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rain Station
—
Factory New
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Constructivist
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Green Apple
—
Factory New
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 28S //TOTAL COST $7.78 //ASK PRICE EV $10.30 //BID PRICE EV $9.61 //ASK PROFIT $2.52 (+32.4%) //BID PROFIT $1.83 (+23.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +120.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$28.83
+$21.05
+270.5%
$26.37
+$18.59
+238.9%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$18.79
+$11.01
+141.5%
$18.05
+$10.27
+132.0%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$14.75
+$6.97
+89.6%
$14.50
+$6.72
+86.4%
$0.25
1.7%
—
WIN
12.5%
$11.23
+$3.45
+44.3%
$9.36
+$1.58
+20.3%
$1.87
16.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.37
-$5.41
-69.5%
$2.34
-$5.44
-69.9%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.32
-$5.46
-70.1%
$2.26
-$5.52
-71.0%
$0.06
2.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.20
-$5.58
-71.7%
$2.10
-$5.68
-73.0%
$0.10
4.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.90
-$5.88
-75.6%
$1.86
-$5.92
-76.1%
$0.04
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.055896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3705,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:13.356421Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0405246,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.324,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:17.118459Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0600882,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.052402500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.2005,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:08.801620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045415500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:07.698517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.05216319525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_33fe66daae447d86f915da14",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189340817154",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:24.130585Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "506235389470224624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:24.130585Z"
},
{
"price": 1.01,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "519746188259274308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:05.975718Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "501731789730665321",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:51.723385Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "494976390475599702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:05.975718Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "511864888985495277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:08:09.198046Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "511864888985515077",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:08:09.198046Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-1a861a1ce86e",
"listing_id": "518620288314373204",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rain Station (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Rain Station",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a861a1ce86e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:18:15.353476Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-324ec12298a8",
"listing_id": "517494388634030890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Constructivist (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Constructivist",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-324ec12298a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:11:00.921537Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-bf9a7895026e",
"listing_id": "526501587738060845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Green Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bf9a7895026e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:44.215239Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 12.5% $3.23 Late Night Transit 12.5% $2.99 2A2F 12.5% $2.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.63 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.12 Creep 12.5% $0.94 | $3.23 +100.7% | $1.90 +18.3% | 50.0% | +52.6% | $1.61 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | 2A2F 12.5% $2.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.63 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.12 Green Line 12.5% $0.99 Creep 12.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 12.5% $0.89 | $2.75 +128.8% | $1.36 +13.5% | 25.0% | +59.8% | $1.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Creep 7.5% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.32 | $28.83 +183.5% | $13.54 +33.1% | 70.0% | +79.7% | $10.17 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Creep 10.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +206.7% | $11.92 +26.8% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $9.40 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Creep 15.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +313.0% | $8.68 +24.3% | 40.0% | +117.4% | $6.98 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 20.0% $28.83 2A2F 20.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 20.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 20.0% $11.23 Creep 5.0% $2.37 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.32 | $28.83 +133.2% | $15.16 +22.6% | 60.0% | +62.4% | $12.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough  35.0% $6.12 Derailment  10.0% $5.85 Charged Up  10.0% $4.93 Whiteout  10.0% $4.17 Trace Lock  35.0% $3.20 | $6.12 +57.2% | $4.75 +22.2% | 65.0% | +33.1% | $3.89 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 The End  20.0% $159.10 | $597.10 +71.7% | $388.44 +11.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $347.78 | — |