The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
RMX
1x $0.58
Fusion
1x $1.49
Zubastick
1x $2.46
Exchanger
1x $0.70
Co-Processor
2x $1.30
Facility Negative
4x $2.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
23.3% $55.76
Random Access
23.3% $19.77
Core Breach
23.3% $8.30
Electrum
6.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
6.0% $5.02
Galigator
6.0% $3.38
Max Win
$55.76 (+200.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.87 (+12.3%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+108.1%
Cost
$18.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.58
Ask Price EV $20.87 (+12.3%)
Bid Price EV $20.52 (+10.4%)
Ask Profit $2.29 (+12.3%)
Bid Profit $1.94 (+10.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+1.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.29
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.94
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $55.76 (+200.1%)
Worst Case $3.14 (-83.1%)
Volatility +108.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$19.18
Avg Loss -$12.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.14 (-83.1%)
Std Dev $20.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 146h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.46 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.22 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 25S //TOTAL COST $18.58 //ASK PRICE EV $20.87 //BID PRICE EV $20.52 //ASK PROFIT $2.29 (+12.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.94 (+10.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +108.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$55.76
+$37.18
+200.1%
$55.39
+$36.81
+198.1%
$0.37
0.7%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$19.77
+$1.19
+6.4%
$19.55
+$0.97
+5.2%
$0.22
1.1%
—
NUKE
23.3%
$8.30
-$10.28
-55.3%
$8.05
-$10.53
-56.7%
$0.25
3.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.00
-$11.58
-62.3%
$5.93
-$12.65
-68.1%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.02
-$13.56
-73.0%
$3.97
-$14.61
-78.6%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.38
-$15.20
-81.8%
$3.17
-$15.41
-82.9%
$0.21
6.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.26
-$15.32
-82.4%
$3.13
-$15.45
-83.2%
$0.13
4.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.14
-$15.44
-83.1%
$3.08
-$15.50
-83.4%
$0.06
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.772,
"optimistic_value": 19.66,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:40.448536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.296,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:18.878113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.3805,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:06.851961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.2635,
"optimistic_value": 3.26,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:31.986953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.14,
"optimistic_value": 3.14,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:09.074779Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_33020bafd566b4c555630e75",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:11.930665Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864888985661813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:31.579732Z"
},
{
"price": 2.46,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "521997935570196126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:41.273569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:22.084333Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "762930893774707950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:04.293006Z"
},
{
"price": 2.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "515242588554759085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "491598690699301658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "519745391339187356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:48.233133Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-nuke-2:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.35 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +73.9% | $2.91 +16.3% | 58.7% | +33.7% | $2.50 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Core Breach 23.3% $29.13 Random Access 23.3% $19.77 Electrum 6.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 6.0% $12.97 Amberline 6.0% $10.24 | $55.76 +101.8% | $28.03 +1.5% | 46.7% | +55.2% | $27.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.40 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.90 | $4.40 +104.5% | $2.81 +30.6% | 63.3% | +40.5% | $2.15 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.40 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.90 | $4.40 +108.4% | $2.75 +30.5% | 62.7% | +41.1% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +97.6% | $2.86 +29.8% | 56.0% | +38.7% | $2.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +110.0% | $2.66 +28.4% | 61.3% | +40.1% | $2.07 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.77 Core Breach 10.0% $8.30 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.38 | $19.77 +256.9% | $6.68 +20.7% | 44.0% | +79.8% | $5.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.40 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.76 | $4.40 +91.2% | $2.57 +11.7% | 42.7% | +36.7% | $2.30 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  10.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  26.7% $150.19 Remote Control  10.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  26.7% $40.33 Kintsugi  26.7% $38.72 | $418.56 +385.4% | $112.47 +30.4% | 46.7% | +130.3% | $86.23 | — |