The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragment
3x $0.21
Facility Negative
3x $0.17
Exchanger
3x $0.19
Co-Processor
1x $0.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
23.3% $4.43
Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
23.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
6.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
6.0% $1.76
Max Win
$4.43 (+85.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.91 (+21.9%)
Win %
58.7%
Volatility
+48.4%
Cost
$2.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.39
Ask Price EV $2.91 (+21.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.68 (+12.0%)
Ask Profit $0.52 (+21.9%)
Bid Profit $0.29 (+12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 58.7%
Loss Probability 41.3%
Best Case $4.43 (+85.3%)
Worst Case $1.49 (-37.8%)
Volatility +48.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.3%
Avg Win +$1.40
Avg Loss -$0.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.49 (-37.8%)
Std Dev $1.16
Avg Norm Float 0.2983
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 145h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 14S //TOTAL COST $2.39 //ASK PRICE EV $2.91 //BID PRICE EV $2.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.52 (+21.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.29 (+12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.7% //BEST CASE $4.43 //VOLATILITY +48.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$4.43
+$2.04
+85.3%
$4.00
+$1.61
+67.4%
$0.43
9.7%
—
BIG WIN
6.0%
$4.11
+$1.72
+72.0%
$3.61
+$1.22
+51.0%
$0.50
12.2%
—
WIN
23.3%
$3.34
+$0.95
+39.6%
$3.22
+$0.83
+34.7%
$0.12
3.5%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$2.79
+$0.40
+16.6%
$2.32
-$0.07
-2.9%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.19
-$0.20
-8.5%
$1.74
-$0.65
-27.2%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.76
-$0.63
-26.5%
$1.63
-$0.76
-31.8%
$0.13
7.2%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.72
-$0.67
-27.9%
$1.63
-$0.76
-31.8%
$0.09
5.4%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$1.49
-$0.90
-37.8%
$1.44
-$0.95
-39.7%
$0.05
3.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14917,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.428999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:05:55.266806Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.208838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.4875,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.011260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7235,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:44.940803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.29834,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7565,
"optimistic_value": 1.69,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:43.567272Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_33020bafd566b4c555630e75",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850490550715500",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "500605889841770843",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "502857689862785176",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:31.770383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "649223316101673160",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:31.770383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:17.395824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "525375688036511467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:14:17.395824Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "496101493268329235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:22.336628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "804590545785002749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:31.770383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "492724590626256381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:08:55.095379Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-nuke-2:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Random Access 23.3% $19.77 Core Breach 23.3% $8.30 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.28 | $55.76 +201.9% | $20.86 +13.0% | 46.7% | +103.6% | $18.47 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 23.3% $55.76 Core Breach 23.3% $29.13 Random Access 23.3% $19.77 Electrum 6.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 6.0% $12.97 Galigator 6.0% $11.25 | $55.76 +103.1% | $28.26 +2.9% | 46.7% | +55.2% | $27.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.43 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.90 | $4.43 +109.9% | $2.82 +33.8% | 63.3% | +41.4% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.43 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.90 | $4.43 +112.9% | $2.77 +33.2% | 62.7% | +41.8% | $2.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.43 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.90 | $4.43 +96.8% | $2.88 +27.8% | 56.0% | +38.8% | $2.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.77 Core Breach 10.0% $8.30 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Amberline 14.0% $3.26 | $19.77 +267.5% | $6.67 +24.0% | 44.0% | +82.5% | $5.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.77 Core Breach 6.7% $8.30 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Amberline 16.0% $3.26 | $19.77 +296.2% | $5.89 +18.0% | 52.0% | +77.7% | $4.99 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 3.3% $55.76 Core Breach 3.3% $29.13 Random Access 3.3% $19.77 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.31 | $55.76 +318.3% | $14.99 +12.5% | 28.0% | +62.6% | $13.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.81 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.39 | $418.56 +259.1% | $148.54 +27.4% | 40.0% | +121.1% | $116.56 | — |