← Results

The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Factory New +1.5%Field-Tested +16.3%Minimal Wear +12.3%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fusion
Sawed-Off | Fusion
1x $1.49
Zubastick
M4A4 | Zubastick
2x $2.81
Facility Negative
P90 | Facility Negative
3x $2.27
Co-Processor
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
1x $2.48
Exchanger
P250 | Exchanger
3x $2.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
23.3% $55.76
Core Breach
MAG-7 | Core Breach
23.3% $29.13
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
23.3% $19.77
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $12.97
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
6.0% $10.24
Max Win
$55.76 (+101.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$28.03 (+1.5%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+60.3%
Cost
$27.63
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $27.63
Ask Price EV $28.03 (+1.5%)
Bid Price EV $27.25 (-1.4%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+1.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-1.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.78 (+2.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $55.76 (+101.8%)
Worst Case $7.50 (-72.9%)
Volatility +60.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$14.81
Avg Loss -$12.21
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.50 (-72.9%)
Std Dev $16.65
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 146h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)
$2.81 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)
$2.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Factory New
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)
$5.57 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 53S //TOTAL COST $27.63 //ASK PRICE EV $28.03 //BID PRICE EV $27.25 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+1.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-1.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +60.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.03499,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "realistic_value": 19.772,
      "optimistic_value": 19.66,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "conservative_value": 19.55,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:40.448536Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
      "realistic_value": 55.757,
      "optimistic_value": 55.4,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
      "conservative_value": 55.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "realistic_value": 29.132,
      "optimistic_value": 28.67,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "conservative_value": 27.72,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:19.048099Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
      "realistic_value": 12.967,
      "optimistic_value": 12.89,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
      "conservative_value": 11.57,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "realistic_value": 7.5,
      "optimistic_value": 6,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "conservative_value": 6,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:57.048963Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
      "realistic_value": 19.4975,
      "optimistic_value": 19.34,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
      "conservative_value": 17.32,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "realistic_value": 10.237,
      "optimistic_value": 10.23,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "conservative_value": 10.09,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:59.999529Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06,
      "output_float": 0.06998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "realistic_value": 10,
      "optimistic_value": 10,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "conservative_value": 9.98,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:22.650665Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_33020bafd566b4c555630e75",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
      "listing_id": "511864888985661813",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:31.579732Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.81,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "526501587736534805",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:41.273569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "496102290328295663",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:41.273569Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
      "listing_id": "511864091802328281",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
      "listing_id": "491598690699301658",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
      "listing_id": "519745391339187356",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:48.233133Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
      "listing_id": "526501535294375657",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Exchanger",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:57.126532Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
      "listing_id": "490472738291788659",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Exchanger",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:57.126532Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
      "listing_id": "518620235869057900",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:24.239399Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
      "listing_id": "515242536108790957",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Exchanger",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:57.126532Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-nuke-2:7"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
23.3% $4.35
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
23.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
6.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
6.0% $1.90
$4.35
+73.9%
$2.91
+16.3%
58.7%+33.7%$2.50—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
23.3% $55.76
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
23.3% $19.77
Core Breach
MAG-7 | Core Breach
23.3% $8.30
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
6.0% $3.38
$55.76
+200.1%
$20.87
+12.3%
46.7%+103.0%$18.58—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
16.7% $4.40
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
16.7% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.90
$4.40
+104.5%
$2.81
+30.6%
63.3%+40.5%$2.15—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
13.3% $4.40
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
13.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.90
$4.40
+108.4%
$2.75
+30.5%
62.7%+41.1%$2.11—
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
20.0% $4.35
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
20.0% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
8.0% $1.90
$4.35
+97.6%
$2.86
+29.8%
56.0%+38.7%$2.20—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
6.7% $4.35
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
6.7% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
16.0% $1.90
$4.35
+110.0%
$2.66
+28.4%
61.3%+40.1%$2.07—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
10.0% $19.77
Core Breach
MAG-7 | Core Breach
10.0% $8.30
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
10.0% $8.25
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $3.38
$19.77
+256.9%
$6.68
+20.7%
44.0%+79.8%$5.54—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
3.3% $4.40
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
18.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
3.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
18.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
18.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
18.0% $1.76
$4.40
+91.2%
$2.57
+11.7%
42.7%+36.7%$2.30—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Control Panel
M4A1-S | Control Panel
10.0% $418.56
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
26.7% $150.19
Remote Control
Tec-9 | Remote Control
10.0% $94.77
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
26.7% $40.33
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
26.7% $38.72
$418.56
+385.4%
$112.47
+30.4%
46.7%+130.3%$86.23—
FS

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