The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified WW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Triumvirate
1x $4.99
Amberline
7x $2.08
Urban Sovereign
2x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Kumicho Dragon
3.3% $53.17
Elite Build
3.3% $46.34
Crane Flight
30.0% $45.29
Hyper Beast
3.3% $43.39
Deathgaze
30.0% $9.04
Kintsugi
30.0% $7.96
Max Win
$53.17 (+88.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.45 (-17.1%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+65.0%
Cost
$28.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.28
Ask Price EV $23.45 (-17.1%)
Bid Price EV $21.74 (-23.1%)
Ask Profit $-4.83 (-17.1%)
Bid Profit $-6.54 (-23.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.71 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.83
Bid Slippage Buffer -$6.54
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $53.17 (+88.0%)
Worst Case $7.96 (-71.9%)
Volatility +65.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$17.59
Avg Loss -$19.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.96 (-71.9%)
Std Dev $18.37
Avg Norm Float 0.3940
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 139h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
—
Field-Tested
$4.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 20S //TOTAL COST $28.28 //ASK PRICE EV $23.45 //BID PRICE EV $21.74 //ASK PROFIT $-4.83 (-17.1%) //BID PROFIT $-6.54 (-23.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $53.17 //VOLATILITY +65.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$53.17
+$24.89
+88.0%
$49.88
+$21.60
+76.4%
$3.29
6.2%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$46.34
+$18.06
+63.9%
$43.44
+$15.16
+53.6%
$2.90
6.3%
—
BIG WIN
30.0%
$45.29
+$17.00
+60.1%
$41.72
+$13.44
+47.5%
$3.56
7.9%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$43.39
+$15.11
+53.4%
$38.15
+$9.87
+34.9%
$5.24
12.1%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$9.04
-$19.24
-68.0%
$8.47
-$19.81
-70.0%
$0.57
6.3%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$7.96
-$20.32
-71.9%
$7.67
-$20.61
-72.9%
$0.29
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-11|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.39396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 45.285,
"optimistic_value": 44.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 41.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.425805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.39396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 7.96,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.433714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.39396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 9.0395,
"optimistic_value": 8.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:22.157713Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.39396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2cdadd8b557",
"realistic_value": 46.342,
"optimistic_value": 45.74,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Elite Build",
"conservative_value": 43.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.733947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2cdadd8b557.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2994096,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3fd39ac4ec6f",
"realistic_value": 53.1655,
"optimistic_value": 52,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon",
"conservative_value": 49.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:10.610027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3fd39ac4ec6f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.23637599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0090217a5a4",
"realistic_value": 43.391,
"optimistic_value": 43.3,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Hyper Beast",
"conservative_value": 38.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:08:54.235775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0090217a5a4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_327cc7eb25c9435ccfcabea8",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.99,
"skin_id": "skin-47d923c1512d",
"listing_id": "526501587737222801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Triumvirate",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-47d923c1512d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:01.541093Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "496102290329110667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.699653Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-11:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $220.50 Elite Build 3.3% $169.05 Hyper Beast 3.3% $113.88 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.53 | $290.04 +175.1% | $141.90 +34.6% | 40.0% | +97.3% | $105.44 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $53.17 Elite Build 3.3% $47.04 Hyper Beast 3.3% $43.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 | $63.86 +125.1% | $31.31 +10.4% | 40.0% | +83.7% | $28.37 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $94.45 Hyper Beast 3.3% $71.31 Elite Build 3.3% $69.46 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $20.83 | $126.41 +125.6% | $58.95 +5.2% | 40.0% | +84.4% | $56.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 6.7% $220.50 Elite Build 6.7% $169.05 Hyper Beast 6.7% $113.88 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 | $290.04 +159.7% | $144.78 +29.6% | 46.7% | +87.9% | $111.69 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 10.0% $220.50 Elite Build 10.0% $169.05 Hyper Beast 10.0% $113.88 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +145.9% | $147.65 +25.2% | 43.3% | +79.2% | $117.95 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 13.3% $220.50 Elite Build 13.3% $169.05 Hyper Beast 13.3% $113.88 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 | $290.04 +125.5% | $150.53 +17.0% | 46.7% | +68.7% | $128.63 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Royal Legion  4.0% $67.85 Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Valence  4.0% $44.12 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Impire  4.0% $19.32 Triumvirate 4.0% $19.08 | $67.85 +200.8% | $27.38 +21.4% | 40.0% | +58.9% | $22.56 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Fuel Injector  5.0% $1,346.61 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 The Battlestar  5.0% $164.89 | $1,346.61 +131.4% | $673.34 +15.7% | 50.0% | +43.7% | $582.04 | — |