The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Triumvirate
1x $8.46
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.65
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Kumicho Dragon
3.3% $220.50
Elite Build
3.3% $169.05
Hyper Beast
3.3% $113.88
Kintsugi
30.0% $65.93
Deathgaze
30.0% $61.53
Max Win
$290.04 (+175.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$142.03 (+34.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+97.2%
Cost
$105.44
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $105.44
Ask Price EV $142.03 (+34.7%)
Bid Price EV $114.44 (+8.5%)
Ask Profit $36.59 (+34.7%)
Bid Profit $9.00 (+8.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $27.59 (+26.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$36.59
Bid Slippage Buffer +$9.00
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $290.04 (+175.1%)
Worst Case $61.53 (-41.6%)
Volatility +97.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$154.05
Avg Loss -$41.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $61.53 (-41.6%)
Std Dev $102.52
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 138h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
—
Minimal Wear
$8.46 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 13S //TOTAL COST $105.44 //ASK PRICE EV $142.03 //BID PRICE EV $114.44 //ASK PROFIT $36.59 (+34.7%) //BID PROFIT $9.00 (+8.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +97.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$184.60
+175.1%
$229.11
+$123.67
+117.3%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$220.50
+$115.06
+109.1%
$158.67
+$53.23
+50.5%
$61.83
28.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$169.05
+$63.60
+60.3%
$127.96
+$22.52
+21.4%
$41.08
24.3%
—
PAPER WIN
3.3%
$113.88
+$8.44
+8.0%
$90.13
-$15.31
-14.5%
$23.75
20.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$65.93
-$39.51
-37.5%
$55.11
-$50.33
-47.7%
$10.82
16.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$61.53
-$43.91
-41.6%
$55.38
-$50.06
-47.5%
$6.15
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-11|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.92999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:07.422417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.528999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:12.659693Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2cdadd8b557",
"realistic_value": 169.045,
"optimistic_value": 160.89,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Elite Build",
"conservative_value": 127.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:55.590845Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2cdadd8b557.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0531924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3fd39ac4ec6f",
"realistic_value": 220.4975,
"optimistic_value": 216,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon",
"conservative_value": 158.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:50.193808Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3fd39ac4ec6f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0090217a5a4",
"realistic_value": 113.8815,
"optimistic_value": 101.81,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Hyper Beast",
"conservative_value": 90.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:25.895528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0090217a5a4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_327cc7eb25c9435ccfcabea8",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 8.46,
"skin_id": "skin-47d923c1512d",
"listing_id": "520872035662753800",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Triumvirate",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-47d923c1512d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:39:31.886575Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "509613089304042939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.353441Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.353441Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:38:48.395545Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:31.526611Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:31.526611Z"
},
{
"price": 13.85,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496102124625398987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-11:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $53.17 Elite Build 3.3% $47.04 Hyper Beast 3.3% $43.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 | $63.86 +122.9% | $31.31 +9.3% | 40.0% | +82.9% | $28.65 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $94.45 Hyper Beast 3.3% $71.31 Elite Build 3.3% $70.66 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $20.83 | $126.41 +126.5% | $58.99 +5.7% | 40.0% | +84.8% | $55.82 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 6.7% $220.50 Elite Build 6.7% $169.05 Hyper Beast 6.7% $113.88 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.93 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 | $290.04 +159.7% | $144.90 +29.7% | 46.7% | +87.8% | $111.69 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 10.0% $220.50 Elite Build 10.0% $169.05 Hyper Beast 10.0% $113.88 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.53 | $290.04 +145.9% | $147.66 +25.2% | 43.3% | +79.2% | $117.95 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 13.3% $220.50 Elite Build 13.3% $169.05 Hyper Beast 13.3% $113.88 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.53 | $290.04 +125.5% | $150.54 +17.0% | 46.7% | +68.7% | $128.63 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Royal Legion  4.0% $67.85 Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Valence  4.0% $44.12 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Impire  4.0% $19.32 Triumvirate 4.0% $19.08 | $67.85 +199.8% | $27.37 +20.9% | 40.0% | +58.7% | $22.63 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Fuel Injector  5.0% $1,346.61 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 The Battlestar  5.0% $164.89 | $1,346.61 +121.9% | $673.34 +11.0% | 50.0% | +41.9% | $606.80 | — |