The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Triumvirate
1x $8.46
Amberline
2x $3.17
Urban Sovereign
5x $3.19
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $126.41
Kumicho Dragon
3.3% $94.45
Hyper Beast
3.3% $71.31
Elite Build
3.3% $69.46
Kintsugi
30.0% $23.12
Deathgaze
30.0% $20.83
Max Win
$126.41 (+125.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$58.95 (+5.2%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+84.4%
Cost
$56.04
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $56.04
Ask Price EV $58.95 (+5.2%)
Bid Price EV $52.36 (-6.6%)
Ask Profit $2.91 (+5.2%)
Bid Profit $-3.68 (-6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.59 (+11.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.91
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.68
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $126.41 (+125.6%)
Worst Case $20.83 (-62.8%)
Volatility +84.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$58.37
Avg Loss -$34.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $20.83 (-62.8%)
Std Dev $47.30
Avg Norm Float 0.1437
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 6m
Oldest Output Price 139h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
—
Minimal Wear
$8.46 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 20S //TOTAL COST $56.04 //ASK PRICE EV $58.95 //BID PRICE EV $52.36 //ASK PROFIT $2.91 (+5.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.68 (-6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +84.4% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$126.41
+$70.37
+125.6%
$112.39
+$56.35
+100.6%
$14.02
11.1%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$94.45
+$38.41
+68.5%
$82.54
+$26.50
+47.3%
$11.91
12.6%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$71.31
+$15.27
+27.3%
$51.59
-$4.45
-7.9%
$19.72
27.7%
—
WIN
3.3%
$69.46
+$13.42
+24.0%
$64.88
+$8.84
+15.8%
$4.58
6.6%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$23.12
-$32.92
-58.7%
$20.66
-$35.38
-63.1%
$2.46
10.6%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$20.83
-$35.21
-62.8%
$19.37
-$36.67
-65.4%
$1.46
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-11|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1437,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1437,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.121000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 22.96,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:16.017954Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1437,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 20.826999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.644226Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1437,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2cdadd8b557",
"realistic_value": 69.462,
"optimistic_value": 65.92,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Elite Build",
"conservative_value": 64.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:01.817980Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2cdadd8b557.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.109212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3fd39ac4ec6f",
"realistic_value": 94.4485,
"optimistic_value": 90,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon",
"conservative_value": 82.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:13.914061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3fd39ac4ec6f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.08621999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0090217a5a4",
"realistic_value": 71.314,
"optimistic_value": 69.69,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Hyper Beast",
"conservative_value": 51.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Wildfire Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:27:56.900621Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0090217a5a4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_327cc7eb25c9435ccfcabea8",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 8.46,
"skin_id": "skin-47d923c1512d",
"listing_id": "520872035662753800",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-11",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Triumvirate",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-47d923c1512d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:45.403084Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "496102290329110667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.699653Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "511864888984804653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "509613089304042939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:30.419249Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.555448Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.555448Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-11:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $220.50 Elite Build 3.3% $169.05 Hyper Beast 3.3% $113.88 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.53 | $290.04 +175.1% | $141.90 +34.6% | 40.0% | +97.3% | $105.44 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kumicho Dragon 3.3% $53.17 Elite Build 3.3% $47.04 Hyper Beast 3.3% $43.39 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 | $63.86 +125.1% | $31.31 +10.4% | 40.0% | +83.7% | $28.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 6.7% $220.50 Elite Build 6.7% $169.05 Hyper Beast 6.7% $113.88 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 | $290.04 +159.7% | $144.78 +29.6% | 46.7% | +87.9% | $111.69 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 10.0% $220.50 Elite Build 10.0% $169.05 Hyper Beast 10.0% $113.88 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +145.9% | $147.65 +25.2% | 43.3% | +79.2% | $117.95 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kumicho Dragon 13.3% $220.50 Elite Build 13.3% $169.05 Hyper Beast 13.3% $113.88 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 | $290.04 +125.5% | $150.53 +17.0% | 46.7% | +68.7% | $128.63 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Wildfire Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Royal Legion  4.0% $67.85 Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Valence  4.0% $44.12 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Impire  4.0% $19.32 Triumvirate 4.0% $19.08 | $67.85 +200.8% | $27.38 +21.4% | 40.0% | +58.9% | $22.56 | — |
The Wildfire Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Fuel Injector  5.0% $1,346.61 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 The Battlestar  5.0% $164.89 | $1,346.61 +131.4% | $673.34 +15.7% | 50.0% | +43.7% | $582.04 | — |