The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Resupply
2x $0.11
Mockingbird
1x $0.15
Fragment
4x $0.30
RMX
2x $0.38
Bock Blocks
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
14.0% $7.45
Firebreathing
14.0% $3.97
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $2.69
Galigator
14.0% $2.39
Amberline
14.0% $2.30
Serpent Strike
6.0% $1.64
Max Win
$7.45 (+150.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.00 (+0.8%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+67.0%
Cost
$2.98
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.98
Ask Price EV $3.00 (+0.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.53 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+0.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.45 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.47 (+15.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.45
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $7.45 (+150.1%)
Worst Case $1.00 (-66.5%)
Volatility +67.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$2.73
Avg Loss -$1.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.00 (-66.5%)
Std Dev $2.00
Avg Norm Float 0.4240
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 143h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Well-Worn
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 19S //TOTAL COST $2.98 //ASK PRICE EV $3.00 //BID PRICE EV $2.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+0.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.45 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $7.45 //VOLATILITY +67.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
14.0%
$7.45
+$4.47
+150.1%
$5.07
+$2.09
+70.1%
$2.38
32.0%
—
WIN
14.0%
$3.97
+$0.99
+33.4%
$3.63
+$0.65
+21.8%
$0.34
8.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.69
-$0.29
-9.7%
$2.67
-$0.31
-10.4%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.39
-$0.59
-19.8%
$2.19
-$0.79
-26.5%
$0.20
8.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.30
-$0.68
-22.7%
$2.19
-$0.79
-26.5%
$0.11
4.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.64
-$1.34
-44.9%
$1.55
-$1.43
-48.0%
$0.09
5.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.19
-$1.79
-60.1%
$1.01
-$1.97
-66.1%
$0.18
15.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.18
-$1.80
-60.3%
$1.07
-$1.91
-64.1%
$0.11
9.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.15
-$1.83
-61.3%
$0.89
-$2.09
-70.1%
$0.26
22.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.00
-$1.98
-66.5%
$0.94
-$2.04
-68.5%
$0.06
5.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 3.9739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.96,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.825383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.3905,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:57.054699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 7.452,
"optimistic_value": 7.41,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.814170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:23.605319Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.6905,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.487183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.24167429999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 1.6415,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:18:40.795294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33876589004999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.19,
"optimistic_value": 1.19,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:07:54.434631Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.42399,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.1535,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:02:53.046128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.40302327051,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.998,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:40.502204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.296793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 1.1835,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:03.959568Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_31eb74a0da445f79ab5bcf7c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "512990789045048423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:12:54.087342Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "510738989040480922",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:12:54.087342Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "507361289453327053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:56.354538Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "502857689862472948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289452778197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989896168933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897691262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:27.925044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:27.925044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "496102290329339159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:33.871628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "509613089303654607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:28.482189Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +243.8% | $4.10 +31.9% | 70.0% | +87.1% | $3.11 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.79 Rising Sun 6.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +208.5% | $21.04 +26.6% | 42.0% | +76.7% | $16.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 14.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 14.0% $10.78 Amberline 14.0% $6.48 Galigator 14.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $4.73 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 | $16.94 +141.9% | $7.15 +2.2% | 28.0% | +58.7% | $7.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Amberline 12.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.19 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +279.2% | $3.70 +31.3% | 60.0% | +93.7% | $2.82 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Amberline 10.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.19 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +308.1% | $3.30 +26.1% | 50.0% | +97.5% | $2.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 8.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 8.0% $6.12 Galigator 8.0% $3.26 Amberline 8.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $3.19 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +362.9% | $2.91 +25.8% | 40.0% | +105.1% | $2.31 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.79 Rising Sun 2.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +161.5% | $24.36 +24.2% | 36.0% | +69.5% | $19.61 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 4.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +180.2% | $22.72 +24.2% | 48.0% | +71.9% | $18.30 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.79 Rising Sun 14.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +324.5% | $14.40 +19.2% | 44.0% | +83.3% | $12.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 4.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 4.0% $6.12 Serpent Strike 16.0% $4.41 Galigator 4.0% $3.26 Amberline 4.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $3.19 | $10.69 +377.4% | $2.55 +14.0% | 36.0% | +86.6% | $2.24 | — |
The Fever Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 2.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 2.0% $6.12 Serpent Strike 18.0% $4.41 Galigator 2.0% $3.26 Amberline 2.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $3.19 | $10.69 +416.6% | $2.21 +6.7% | 28.0% | +79.1% | $2.07 | — |