The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
4x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.18
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.19
Red Wing
1x $0.25
Co-Processor
1x $0.16
Exchanger
2x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
10.0% $4.26
Liquidation
14.0% $4.01
Nuclear Garden
10.0% $3.34
Core Breach
10.0% $1.48
Cat Fight
14.0% $1.13
Continuum
14.0% $1.06
Max Win
$4.26 (+125.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.06 (+9.2%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+70.5%
Cost
$1.89
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.89
Ask Price EV $2.06 (+9.2%)
Bid Price EV $1.93 (+2.1%)
Ask Profit $0.17 (+9.2%)
Bid Profit $0.04 (+2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+7.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.17
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.04
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $4.26 (+125.3%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-46.5%)
Volatility +70.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$2.00
Avg Loss -$0.77
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-46.5%)
Std Dev $1.33
Avg Norm Float 0.2988
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 150h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 05M 15S //TOTAL COST $1.89 //ASK PRICE EV $2.06 //BID PRICE EV $1.93 //ASK PROFIT $0.17 (+9.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.04 (+2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $4.26 //VOLATILITY +70.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.26
+$2.37
+125.3%
$4.00
+$2.11
+111.6%
$0.26
6.1%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.01
+$2.12
+112.4%
$3.61
+$1.72
+91.0%
$0.40
10.1%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.34
+$1.45
+76.6%
$3.22
+$1.33
+70.4%
$0.12
3.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.48
-$0.41
-21.8%
$1.44
-$0.45
-23.8%
$0.04
2.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.13
-$0.76
-40.2%
$1.04
-$0.85
-45.0%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.06
-$0.83
-43.9%
$0.96
-$0.93
-49.2%
$0.10
9.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.04
-$0.85
-44.9%
$1.00
-$0.89
-47.1%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.01
-$0.88
-46.5%
$0.99
-$0.90
-47.6%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:05.300685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.0405,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.726059Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0605,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.774545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.2585,
"optimistic_value": 4.22,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:29.582465Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.209132,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.29876,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.4775,
"optimistic_value": 1.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:37.279700Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_31d111f057895b870fda0101",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "527627540537365592",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:29.312751Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "511864941881732685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:26.088886Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "519746241188648456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:42.204254Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "500605942755514259",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:40.589537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242641501267145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:26.088886Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "498353924436783559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:26.088886Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864091802652641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:51.648460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "512990841908061071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:56.735008Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "511864888986048201",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.610494Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.610494Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Core Breach 10.0% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.13 | $19.63 +335.3% | $5.88 +30.4% | 44.0% | +109.6% | $4.51 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 10.0% $55.76 Core Breach 10.0% $29.13 Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Liquidation 14.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 14.0% $6.50 Angel Eyes 14.0% $6.27 | $55.76 +240.8% | $16.67 +1.9% | 44.0% | +86.4% | $16.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach 13.3% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 12.0% $2.13 | $19.63 +271.2% | $6.77 +27.9% | 52.0% | +99.9% | $5.29 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.26 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Core Breach 20.0% $1.48 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +117.3% | $2.47 +26.3% | 48.0% | +62.0% | $1.96 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.26 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Core Breach 23.3% $1.48 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +99.9% | $2.61 +22.8% | 52.7% | +56.5% | $2.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.26 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Core Breach 16.7% $1.48 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +120.6% | $2.34 +21.1% | 43.3% | +63.4% | $1.93 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Ice Coaled  20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills  20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $44.00 | $418.56 +278.8% | $131.35 +18.9% | 20.0% | +131.0% | $110.50 | — |