The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Red Wing

1x $0.65
MAGnitude

1x $1.34
Focus

3x $1.39
Bullfrog

2x $1.49
Exchanger

1x $0.70
Facility Negative

2x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden

10.0% $55.76
Core Breach

10.0% $29.13
Random Access

10.0% $19.63
Liquidation

14.0% $19.42
Cat Fight

14.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes

14.0% $6.27
Max Win
$55.76 (+240.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.67 (+1.9%)
Win %
44.0%
Volatility
+92.9%
Cost
$16.36
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $16.36
Ask Price EV $16.67 (+1.9%)
Bid Price EV $15.98 (-2.3%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+1.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 44.0%
Loss Probability 56.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+240.8%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-62.8%)
Volatility +92.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%
Avg Win +$13.57
Avg Loss -$10.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-62.8%)
Std Dev $15.20
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 150h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear

$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Factory New

$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New

$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New

$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New

$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New

$2.62 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear

$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New

$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 26S //TOTAL COST $16.36 //ASK PRICE EV $16.67 //BID PRICE EV $15.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +92.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated

BIG WIN
10.0%
$55.76
+$39.40
+240.8%
$55.39
+$39.03
+238.6%
$0.37
0.7%
—

BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$29.13
+$12.77
+78.1%
$27.72
+$11.36
+69.4%
$1.41
4.8%
—

WIN
10.0%
$19.63
+$3.27
+20.0%
$19.52
+$3.16
+19.3%
$0.11
0.6%
—

PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$19.42
+$3.06
+18.7%
$16.07
-$0.29
-1.8%
$3.35
17.2%
—

NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.50
-$9.86
-60.3%
$6.35
-$10.01
-61.2%
$0.15
2.3%
—

NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.27
-$10.09
-61.7%
$6.21
-$10.15
-62.0%
$0.06
1.0%
—

NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.14
-$10.22
-62.5%
$6.12
-$10.24
-62.6%
$0.02
0.3%
—

NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.09
-$10.27
-62.8%
$6.07
-$10.29
-62.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.014542Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:45.746003Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:37.980445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.285483Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.634,
"optimistic_value": 19.62,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:10.321405Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:14.256920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_31d111f057895b870fda0101",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:08.625595Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "508487242222011386",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:34.439927Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "509613142167315039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "492724590627114801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.744421Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "515242641501200689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.744421Z"
},
{
"price": 2.62,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "518620288314721612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:24.757985Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access ![]() 10.0% $19.63 Core Breach ![]() 10.0% $8.43 Nuclear Garden ![]() 10.0% $8.25 Liquidation ![]() 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight ![]() 14.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes ![]() 14.0% $2.13 | $19.63 +335.3% | $5.88 +30.4% | 44.0% | +109.6% | $4.51 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access ![]() 10.0% $4.26 Liquidation ![]() 14.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden ![]() 10.0% $3.34 Core Breach ![]() 10.0% $1.48 Cat Fight ![]() 14.0% $1.13 Continuum ![]() 14.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +125.3% | $2.06 +9.2% | 34.0% | +64.2% | $1.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access ![]() 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach ![]() 13.3% $8.43 Nuclear Garden ![]() 13.3% $8.25 Liquidation ![]() 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight ![]() 12.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes ![]() 12.0% $2.13 | $19.63 +271.2% | $6.77 +27.9% | 52.0% | +99.9% | $5.29 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access ![]() 20.0% $4.26 Liquidation ![]() 8.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden ![]() 20.0% $3.34 Core Breach ![]() 20.0% $1.48 Cat Fight ![]() 8.0% $1.13 Ocular ![]() 8.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +117.3% | $2.47 +26.3% | 48.0% | +62.0% | $1.96 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access ![]() 23.3% $4.26 Liquidation ![]() 6.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden ![]() 23.3% $3.34 Core Breach ![]() 23.3% $1.48 Cat Fight ![]() 6.0% $1.13 Continuum ![]() 6.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +99.9% | $2.61 +22.8% | 52.7% | +56.5% | $2.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access ![]() 16.7% $4.26 Liquidation ![]() 10.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden ![]() 16.7% $3.34 Core Breach ![]() 16.7% $1.48 Cat Fight ![]() 10.0% $1.13 Ocular ![]() 10.0% $1.06 | $4.26 +120.6% | $2.34 +21.1% | 43.3% | +63.4% | $1.93 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel ![]() 20.0% $418.56 Remote Control ![]() 20.0% $94.77 Ice Coaled ![]() 20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills ![]() 20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic ![]() 20.0% $44.00 | $418.56 +278.8% | $131.35 +18.9% | 20.0% | +131.0% | $110.50 | — |




