The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New +1.9%Field-Tested +9.2%Minimal Wear +30.4%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Red Wing

1x $0.65

MAGnitude

1x $1.34

Focus

3x $1.39

Bullfrog

2x $1.49

Exchanger

1x $0.70

Facility Negative

2x $2.27

↓

Possible Outputs

Nuclear Garden

10.0% $55.76

Core Breach

10.0% $29.13

Random Access

10.0% $19.63

Liquidation

14.0% $19.42

Cat Fight

14.0% $6.50

Angel Eyes

14.0% $6.27

Max Win

$55.76 (+240.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$16.67 (+1.9%)

Win %

44.0%

Volatility

+92.9%

Cost

$16.36

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $16.36

Ask Price EV $16.67 (+1.9%)

Bid Price EV $15.98 (-2.3%)

Ask Profit $0.31 (+1.9%)

Bid Profit $-0.38 (-2.3%)

Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+4.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38

Risk

Win Probability 44.0%

Loss Probability 56.0%

Best Case $55.76 (+240.8%)

Worst Case $6.09 (-62.8%)

Volatility +92.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 56.0%

Avg Win +$13.57

Avg Loss -$10.11

Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-62.8%)

Std Dev $15.20

Avg Norm Float 0.0698

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 150h 5m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Red Wing

—

Minimal Wear

$0.65 Float: HIDDEN

MAG-7 | MAGnitude

—

Factory New

$1.34 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Focus

—

Factory New

$1.39 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Factory New

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Focus

—

Factory New

$1.51 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Factory New

$1.61 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Focus

—

Factory New

$2.62 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Exchanger

—

Minimal Wear

$0.70 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Facility Negative

—

Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Facility Negative

—

Factory New

$2.78 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 01M 26S //TOTAL COST $16.36 //ASK PRICE EV $16.67 //BID PRICE EV $15.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 44.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +92.9% //

Possible Outputs · 8

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 6.27,
      "optimistic_value": 6.27,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 6.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.014542Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 19.4155,
      "optimistic_value": 19.37,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 16.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 6.5005,
      "optimistic_value": 6.49,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 6.35,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:45.746003Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 6.09,
      "optimistic_value": 6.09,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 6.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:37.980445Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 6.13,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 6.12,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.285483Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.034905,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "realistic_value": 19.634,
      "optimistic_value": 19.62,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "conservative_value": 19.52,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:10.321405Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
      "realistic_value": 55.757,
      "optimistic_value": 55.4,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
      "conservative_value": 55.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06981,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "realistic_value": 29.132,
      "optimistic_value": 28.67,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "conservative_value": 27.72,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:14.256920Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_31d111f057895b870fda0101",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
      "listing_id": "514116636505205970",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:08.625595Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
      "listing_id": "508487242222011386",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:34.439927Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
      "listing_id": "509613142167315039",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "492724590627114801",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.744421Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
      "listing_id": "492724590627113649",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "515242641501200689",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.744421Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.62,
      "skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
      "listing_id": "518620288314721612",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:48.208882Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
      "listing_id": "505109489448960284",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P250 | Exchanger",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:24.757985Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
      "listing_id": "511864091802328281",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
      "listing_id": "518620235869057900",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-nuke-2:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Random Access 10.0% $19.63 Core Breach 10.0% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.13	$19.63 +335.3%	$5.88 +30.4%	44.0%	+109.6%	$4.51	—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 10.0% $4.26 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Core Breach 10.0% $1.48 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.06	$4.26 +125.3%	$2.06 +9.2%	34.0%	+64.2%	$1.89	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Random Access 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach 13.3% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.21 Angel Eyes 12.0% $2.13	$19.63 +271.2%	$6.77 +27.9%	52.0%	+99.9%	$5.29	—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 20.0% $4.26 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Core Breach 20.0% $1.48 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Ocular 8.0% $1.06	$4.26 +117.3%	$2.47 +26.3%	48.0%	+62.0%	$1.96	—
The Genesis Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 23.3% $4.26 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Core Breach 23.3% $1.48 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.06	$4.26 +99.9%	$2.61 +22.8%	52.7%	+56.5%	$2.13	—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Random Access 16.7% $4.26 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Core Breach 16.7% $1.48 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Ocular 10.0% $1.06	$4.26 +120.6%	$2.34 +21.1%	43.3%	+63.4%	$1.93	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Control Panel 20.0% $418.56 Remote Control 20.0% $94.77 Ice Coaled 20.0% $52.00 Smoking Kills 20.0% $47.40 Mirror Mosaic 20.0% $44.00	$418.56 +278.8%	$131.35 +18.9%	20.0%	+131.0%	$110.50	—