The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Winterized
2x $0.28
Destroyer
1x $0.31
Roadblock
2x $0.31
Monkeyflage
2x $0.37
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Sky Mandala
1x $1.67
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $24.63
Dragon Tech
16.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
16.0% $4.20
Downtown
16.0% $3.53
Flora Carnivora
16.0% $1.75
Max Win
$26.79 (+279.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.63 (+8.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+129.1%
Cost
$7.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.06
Ask Price EV $7.63 (+8.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.29 (+3.2%)
Ask Profit $0.57 (+8.0%)
Bid Profit $0.23 (+3.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+279.4%)
Worst Case $1.68 (-76.2%)
Volatility +129.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$18.65
Avg Loss -$3.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.68 (-76.2%)
Std Dev $9.11
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 27h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 36S //TOTAL COST $7.06 //ASK PRICE EV $7.63 //BID PRICE EV $7.29 //ASK PROFIT $0.57 (+8.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.23 (+3.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +129.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$26.79
+$19.73
+279.4%
$26.08
+$19.02
+269.4%
$0.71
2.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$24.63
+$17.57
+248.9%
$22.28
+$15.22
+215.6%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.38
-$2.68
-38.0%
$4.37
-$2.69
-38.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.20
-$2.86
-40.5%
$4.19
-$2.87
-40.7%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.53
-$3.53
-50.0%
$3.52
-$3.54
-50.1%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.75
-$5.31
-75.2%
$1.61
-$5.45
-77.2%
$0.14
8.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.68
-$5.38
-76.2%
$1.63
-$5.43
-76.9%
$0.05
3.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.75,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:05.969842Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06495450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:06.098509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:09.838555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.09993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.681,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:20.739184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:02.242126Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_312e9283c6fa107a82cddfa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:14.202455Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "493850438107634608",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:31.103626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:15.065796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "511864723322289105",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.054324Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "491597893797149294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.054324Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:15.065796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:41.599850Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:14.202455Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "529879287551874600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:06.098520Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620210951",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.74 | $13.99 +432.0% | $3.40 +29.2% | 20.0% | +177.3% | $2.63 | — |