The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Destroyer
3x $0.14
Winterized
3x $0.18
Fraise Crane
1x $0.47
Sky Mandala
1x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $13.94
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $11.82
Vent Rush
16.0% $1.31
Dragon Tech
16.0% $1.21
Downtown
16.0% $1.11
Crazy 8
16.0% $0.76
Max Win
$13.94 (+442.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.40 (+32.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+185.6%
Cost
$2.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.57
Ask Price EV $3.40 (+32.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.91 (+13.4%)
Ask Profit $0.83 (+32.2%)
Bid Profit $0.34 (+13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+18.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.83
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $13.94 (+442.3%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-71.3%)
Volatility +185.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$10.31
Avg Loss -$1.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-71.3%)
Std Dev $4.77
Avg Norm Float 0.2122
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 56h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 33S //TOTAL COST $2.57 //ASK PRICE EV $3.40 //BID PRICE EV $2.91 //ASK PROFIT $0.83 (+32.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.34 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $13.94 //VOLATILITY +185.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$13.94
+$11.37
+442.3%
$12.05
+$9.48
+368.9%
$1.89
13.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$11.82
+$9.25
+360.0%
$9.69
+$7.12
+277.0%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.31
-$1.26
-49.0%
$1.08
-$1.49
-58.0%
$0.23
17.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.21
-$1.36
-52.8%
$1.12
-$1.45
-56.4%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.11
-$1.46
-56.8%
$1.03
-$1.54
-59.9%
$0.08
7.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.76
-$1.81
-70.3%
$0.70
-$1.87
-72.8%
$0.06
8.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.74
-$1.83
-71.3%
$0.69
-$1.88
-73.2%
$0.05
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:23.513038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1379625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.11,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:33:06.684720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14857499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.31,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:42.686562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.21225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:10.838621Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14857499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14857499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.936499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.87,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:04.320686Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14857499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_312e9283c6fa107a82cddfa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "515242588554922957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:33.706234Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:40.171270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525374890937807815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:40.171270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:33.706234Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "510738823411159930",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:23.490327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "497227393156968617",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:23.490327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "508486392187241150",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:29.547803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:55.179226Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "529879287551741328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:13.077204Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Dragon Tech 16.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 16.0% $4.20 Downtown 16.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 16.0% $1.75 | $26.79 +291.6% | $7.63 +11.5% | 20.0% | +128.6% | $6.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Downtown 10.0% $1.11 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +164.1% | $6.87 +33.4% | 50.0% | +107.8% | $5.15 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Downtown 8.0% $1.11 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +117.0% | $8.04 +28.2% | 60.0% | +85.9% | $6.27 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.22 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.11 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.76 | $13.99 +83.1% | $9.34 +22.2% | 70.0% | +66.9% | $7.64 | — |