The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Monkeyflage
1x $0.38
Roadblock
1x $0.39
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Winterized
2x $0.61
Destroyer
3x $1.86
Warm Blooded
2x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
10.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
10.0% $24.63
Crazy 8
16.0% $10.91
Flora Carnivora
16.0% $10.55
Dragon Tech
16.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
16.0% $4.20
Max Win
$26.79 (+103.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.51 (-20.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+61.9%
Cost
$13.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.18
Ask Price EV $10.51 (-20.2%)
Bid Price EV $10.16 (-22.9%)
Ask Profit $-2.67 (-20.2%)
Bid Profit $-3.02 (-22.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+2.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.67
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.02
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+103.2%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-73.2%)
Volatility +61.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$12.53
Avg Loss -$6.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-73.2%)
Std Dev $8.16
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 27h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 59S //TOTAL COST $13.18 //ASK PRICE EV $10.51 //BID PRICE EV $10.16 //ASK PROFIT $-2.67 (-20.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.02 (-22.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +61.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$26.79
+$13.61
+103.2%
$26.08
+$12.90
+97.9%
$0.71
2.6%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$24.63
+$11.45
+86.9%
$22.28
+$9.10
+69.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.91
-$2.27
-17.2%
$10.89
-$2.29
-17.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.55
-$2.63
-19.9%
$10.30
-$2.88
-21.9%
$0.25
2.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.38
-$8.80
-66.8%
$4.37
-$8.81
-66.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.20
-$8.98
-68.1%
$4.19
-$8.99
-68.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.53
-$9.65
-73.2%
$3.52
-$9.66
-73.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.5525,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:18.676901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.045487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:06.098509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:09.838555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.914,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:22.780877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:02.242126Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_312e9283c6fa107a82cddfa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-cf8d25d8a85c",
"listing_id": "491597893797149294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Monkeyflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf8d25d8a85c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:58.054324Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:15.065796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:41.599850Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:14.202455Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "641342016842138023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:14.202455Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:33.361090Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:33.361090Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:33.361090Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620210951",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.32,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109437005132500",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.31 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.11 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.74 | $13.99 +432.0% | $3.40 +29.2% | 20.0% | +177.3% | $2.63 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $24.63 Dragon Tech 16.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 16.0% $4.20 Downtown 16.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 16.0% $1.75 | $26.79 +279.4% | $7.63 +8.0% | 20.0% | +124.6% | $7.06 | — |