The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.13
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Shredded
3x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
1x $0.30
Blush Pour
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.91
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $1.97
Kitbash
6.0% $0.70
Brother
6.0% $0.69
Monster Call
6.0% $0.67
Max Win
$5.01 (+97.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.51 (-0.9%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+63.5%
Cost
$2.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.53
Ask Price EV $2.51 (-0.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.35 (-7.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.02 (-0.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.18 (-7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+6.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+97.9%)
Worst Case $0.59 (-76.5%)
Volatility +63.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.43
Avg Loss -$1.29
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.59 (-76.5%)
Std Dev $1.61
Avg Norm Float 0.4142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 150h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 38S //TOTAL COST $2.53 //ASK PRICE EV $2.51 //BID PRICE EV $2.35 //ASK PROFIT $-0.02 (-0.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.18 (-7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +63.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$2.48
+97.9%
$4.66
+$2.13
+84.2%
$0.35
6.9%
—
WIN
23.3%
$2.91
+$0.38
+15.0%
$2.76
+$0.23
+9.1%
$0.15
5.2%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$1.97
-$0.56
-22.0%
$1.90
-$0.63
-24.9%
$0.07
3.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$1.83
-72.5%
$0.64
-$1.89
-74.7%
$0.06
8.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.69
-$1.84
-72.7%
$0.55
-$1.98
-78.3%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.67
-$1.86
-73.5%
$0.59
-$1.94
-76.7%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$1.87
-74.0%
$0.62
-$1.91
-75.5%
$0.04
5.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.59
-$1.94
-76.5%
$0.58
-$1.95
-77.1%
$0.01
2.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3106425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2775073,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.91,
"optimistic_value": 2.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:52.090220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.24851399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 1.974,
"optimistic_value": 1.96,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:54.302296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33135200000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.6575,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:57:18.635898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.41419,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.5934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.59,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:41.152637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.41419,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33135200000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.697,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:34.736256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.41419,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:25.969052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2b0bdfe4761c0ceaeb851960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "507361342333975525",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:14.411568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "497228137695265325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:18.762054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:14.411568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472843632890003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:11.108093Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "527627540537868440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:12.745506Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "499480042827727417",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:12.745506Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "528753440605005129",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:19.052894Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102343225964179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:56.875972Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "492724590626916477",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:56.875972Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "508487189339594522",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:28.173973Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +206.0% | $6.76 +29.8% | 70.0% | +98.9% | $5.21 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.80 Allure 6.0% $1.76 Monster Call 6.0% $1.56 Brother 6.0% $1.54 | $33.42 +136.0% | $16.12 +13.9% | 70.0% | +73.4% | $14.16 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.63 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +322.9% | $5.03 +33.3% | 50.0% | +134.9% | $3.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Kitbash 8.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +257.4% | $5.90 +32.2% | 60.0% | +115.9% | $4.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.63 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 Kitbash 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +522.7% | $3.29 +28.7% | 30.0% | +176.2% | $2.56 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Monster Call 4.0% $0.71 Kitbash 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +165.2% | $7.63 +26.9% | 53.3% | +84.1% | $6.01 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.63 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Monster Call 2.0% $0.71 Kitbash 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.51 +25.1% | 30.0% | +71.8% | $6.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.63 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.28 Allure 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +575.5% | $2.62 +11.2% | 20.0% | +161.7% | $2.36 | — |