The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Runic
2x $1.63
Blush Pour
2x $1.67
Rose Hex
3x $1.80
Arsenic Spill
2x $2.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.80
Brother
6.0% $11.36
Allure
6.0% $8.88
Monster Call
6.0% $8.24
Max Win
$33.42 (+65.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.14 (-10.2%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+45.9%
Cost
$20.21
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.21
Ask Price EV $18.14 (-10.2%)
Bid Price EV $17.53 (-13.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.07 (-10.2%)
Bid Profit $-2.68 (-13.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.68
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+65.4%)
Worst Case $5.55 (-72.5%)
Volatility +45.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$13.21
Avg Loss -$6.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.55 (-72.5%)
Std Dev $9.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 150h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 59S //TOTAL COST $20.21 //ASK PRICE EV $18.14 //BID PRICE EV $17.53 //ASK PROFIT $-2.07 (-10.2%) //BID PROFIT $-2.68 (-13.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +45.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$33.42
+$13.21
+65.4%
$31.48
+$11.27
+55.8%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$3.23
-16.0%
$16.48
-$3.73
-18.5%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.80
-$3.41
-16.9%
$16.69
-$3.52
-17.4%
$0.11
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$11.36
-$8.85
-43.8%
$11.24
-$8.97
-44.4%
$0.12
1.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.88
-$11.33
-56.1%
$8.83
-$11.38
-56.3%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.24
-$11.97
-59.2%
$8.13
-$12.08
-59.8%
$0.11
1.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.01
-$13.20
-65.3%
$6.99
-$13.22
-65.4%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.55
-$14.66
-72.5%
$5.49
-$14.72
-72.8%
$0.06
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05241,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0468196,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.7985,
"optimistic_value": 16.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.102882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.01,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:11.944855Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.876999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:02.388181Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:24.584057Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.5535,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:45.208587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.3595,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:19.698356Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2b0bdfe4761c0ceaeb851960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:22.185245Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:49.442618Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "496102237882527407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:49.442618Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:33.115956Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "499480042828001593",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "526501640650586777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "526501587737363489",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "497228243054789885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:44.518019Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +206.0% | $6.76 +29.8% | 70.0% | +98.9% | $5.21 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.80 Allure 6.0% $1.76 Monster Call 6.0% $1.56 Brother 6.0% $1.54 | $33.42 +136.0% | $16.12 +13.9% | 70.0% | +73.4% | $14.16 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.63 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +322.9% | $5.03 +33.3% | 50.0% | +134.9% | $3.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Kitbash 8.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +257.4% | $5.90 +32.2% | 60.0% | +115.9% | $4.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.63 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 Kitbash 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +522.7% | $3.29 +28.7% | 30.0% | +176.2% | $2.56 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Monster Call 4.0% $0.71 Kitbash 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +165.2% | $7.63 +26.9% | 53.3% | +84.1% | $6.01 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.63 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Monster Call 2.0% $0.71 Kitbash 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.51 +25.1% | 30.0% | +71.8% | $6.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.63 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.28 Allure 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +575.5% | $2.62 +11.2% | 20.0% | +161.7% | $2.36 | — |