The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Mainframe 001
1x $0.34
Ultralight
1x $0.53
Runic
1x $1.63
Red Tide
1x $1.18
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Shredded
1x $1.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.80
Allure
6.0% $1.76
Monster Call
6.0% $1.56
Brother
6.0% $1.54
Max Win
$33.42 (+136.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.12 (+13.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+81.9%
Cost
$14.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.16
Ask Price EV $16.12 (+13.9%)
Bid Price EV $15.50 (+9.5%)
Ask Profit $1.96 (+13.9%)
Bid Profit $1.34 (+9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+4.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.34
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+136.0%)
Worst Case $1.27 (-91.0%)
Volatility +81.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$8.24
Avg Loss -$12.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.27 (-91.0%)
Std Dev $11.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 150h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 38S //TOTAL COST $14.16 //ASK PRICE EV $16.12 //BID PRICE EV $15.50 //ASK PROFIT $1.96 (+13.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.34 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +81.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$33.42
+$19.26
+136.0%
$31.48
+$17.32
+122.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
23.3%
$16.98
+$2.82
+19.9%
$16.48
+$2.32
+16.4%
$0.50
2.9%
—
WIN
23.3%
$16.80
+$2.64
+18.6%
$16.69
+$2.53
+17.9%
$0.11
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.76
-$12.40
-87.6%
$1.54
-$12.62
-89.1%
$0.22
12.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.56
-$12.60
-89.0%
$1.53
-$12.63
-89.2%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.54
-$12.62
-89.1%
$1.53
-$12.63
-89.2%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.30
-$12.86
-90.8%
$1.23
-$12.93
-91.3%
$0.07
5.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.27
-$12.89
-91.0%
$1.12
-$13.04
-92.1%
$0.15
12.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.069975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.062511,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.7985,
"optimistic_value": 16.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.102882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055979999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.304,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:32.147687Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.756,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.999205Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.345450Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.2735,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:17.999752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:14.166447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2b0bdfe4761c0ceaeb851960",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "529879340431950060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:09.425054Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:58.924605Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:49.442618Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "510738823410978598",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:54.304293Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:23.013266Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:23.013266Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "523123940969106754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:48.840177Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "499480042828001593",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +206.0% | $6.76 +29.8% | 70.0% | +98.9% | $5.21 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.63 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +322.9% | $5.03 +33.3% | 50.0% | +134.9% | $3.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Kitbash 8.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +257.4% | $5.90 +32.2% | 60.0% | +115.9% | $4.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.63 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 Kitbash 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +522.7% | $3.29 +28.7% | 30.0% | +176.2% | $2.56 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Monster Call 4.0% $0.71 Kitbash 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +165.2% | $7.63 +26.9% | 53.3% | +84.1% | $6.01 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.63 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Monster Call 2.0% $0.71 Kitbash 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.51 +25.1% | 30.0% | +71.8% | $6.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.48 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.63 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.28 Allure 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +575.5% | $2.62 +11.2% | 20.0% | +161.7% | $2.36 | — |