The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.08
Mainframe
2x $0.09
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
Basket Halftone
3x $0.11
Grey Ghost
1x $0.13
Steel Work
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
10.0% $2.48
Exchanger
10.0% $2.42
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.24
Facility Negative
10.0% $2.22
Co-Processor
10.0% $2.21
Rose Hex
10.0% $1.84
Max Win
$2.48 (+82.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.76 (+29.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+45.7%
Cost
$1.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.36
Ask Price EV $1.76 (+29.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.66 (+21.9%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+29.1%)
Bid Profit $0.30 (+21.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $2.48 (+82.4%)
Worst Case $0.81 (-40.7%)
Volatility +45.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.88
Avg Loss -$0.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.81 (-40.7%)
Std Dev $0.62
Avg Norm Float 0.1389
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 116h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 17S //TOTAL COST $1.36 //ASK PRICE EV $1.76 //BID PRICE EV $1.66 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+29.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.30 (+21.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $2.48 //VOLATILITY +45.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.48
+$1.12
+82.4%
$2.47
+$1.11
+81.6%
$0.01
0.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.42
+$1.06
+77.6%
$2.36
+$1.00
+73.5%
$0.06
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.24
+$0.88
+65.0%
$2.09
+$0.73
+53.7%
$0.15
6.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.22
+$0.86
+63.5%
$2.16
+$0.80
+58.8%
$0.06
2.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.21
+$0.85
+62.4%
$2.04
+$0.68
+50.0%
$0.17
7.6%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.84
+$0.48
+35.3%
$1.74
+$0.38
+27.9%
$0.10
5.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.36
-$0.00
-0.3%
$1.15
-$0.21
-15.4%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.04
-$0.32
-23.3%
$1.01
-$0.35
-25.7%
$0.03
3.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.94
-$0.42
-31.1%
$0.82
-$0.54
-39.7%
$0.12
12.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$0.55
-40.7%
$0.74
-$0.62
-45.6%
$0.07
8.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11530359999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.4805,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:23:13.880438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.208,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:22.386859Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:55.884359Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2235,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06973242212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.825646Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10459856371999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.84,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.007635Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.083352,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.807,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:40.529900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10418999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:29.554432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09424763452,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.937,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.143615Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_29fd89b63d4a0d84f37cb52e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "502856892583739272",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "514116688950084810",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "497228190141781085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.700412Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:05.599848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176103663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:46.594295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:03.513111Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:35.114112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:32.232223Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acheron 10.0% $2.48 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.94 Shredded 10.0% $0.81 | $2.48 +181.9% | $0.96 +9.6% | 50.0% | +56.7% | $0.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 7.5% $2.48 Exchanger 7.5% $2.42 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.24 Facility Negative 7.5% $2.22 Co-Processor 7.5% $2.21 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.84 | $2.48 +79.7% | $1.66 +20.2% | 53.3% | +31.0% | $1.38 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Nuclear Garden  3.3% $8.25 Glitched Paint  30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.59 Random Access  3.3% $4.51 Core Breach  3.3% $1.49 | $15.94 +115.4% | $9.05 +22.3% | 33.3% | +62.9% | $7.40 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  35.0% $418.56 Nouveau Rouge  30.0% $178.22 Remote Control  35.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +100.7% | $233.13 +11.8% | 35.0% | +67.2% | $208.52 | — |